India’s quick commerce market is set to grow from about $13 billion in FY2026 to $90 billion by FY2031, with monthly transacting users crossing 100 million, according to a report by Google and Redseer Strategy Consultants.
The near-term momentum is already strong. Quick commerce sales are projected to rise 110 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) this festive season and account for roughly 18 per cent of total online festive spending.
The report, titled “Think Quick Commerce: Unlocking the $90B Opportunity”, says the next phase depends on two fronts: larger planned grocery baskets and non-grocery categories in metros, and better unit economics and consumer trust in non-metros.
Metros will drive about 60 per cent of incremental growth through FY31. Quick commerce’s share of metro retail spend is expected to rise from around 6 per cent to 20-23 per cent, while metro users nearly double from 28 million to almost 50 million. No major retail category has yet crossed 15 per cent penetration. Platforms will need to move from top-up orders to monthly pantry replenishment through bulk packs, value pricing and re-order nudges.
Non-grocery is the other metro bet. The segment is projected to grow from about $3 billion to $21-27 billion across beauty, personal care, home essentials and electronics. That will require wider assortments through long-tail dark stores and storefront partnerships, assisted discovery, and stronger assurances on authenticity and replacements.
Outside metros, quick commerce can tap about 200 million online shoppers across more than 300 cities, with 55-60 million monthly transacting users expected by FY2031. Over 95 per cent of surveyed non-users already know about quick commerce. Smaller baskets, freshness concerns and trust remain the hurdles. Because these shoppers often value price over instant delivery, the report suggests flexible delivery slots to cut basket fees, along with easy refunds on fresh produce, regional products, trial packs and regional-language content.
Kushal Bhatnagar, Partner at Redseer Strategy Consultants, said the road to $90 billion is harder because much of the remaining spend does not follow the “known product in minutes” logic. “A monthly grocery shop is governed by pack size, price and familiarity, while a beauty or electronics purchase may involve comparison, reviews and greater reassurance,” he said. Platforms must judge where speed still matters, he added, and those choices will shape the market’s size and economics.