Indian stock markets are likely to open on a weak note, amid weak global cues and persistent selling by foreign portfolio investors. All eyes will be on Tata Consultancy Services, which will declare its Q2 and H1 results today. Though expectations are for modest revenue growth, the focus will be more on its outlook and AI spending. With the RBI turning more hawkish, analysts expect the market to remain under pressure.
Gift Nifty at 22,545 indicates a gap-down opening of over 100 points. Following adverse signals from Europe and the US, equities across the Asia Pacific region are down around 1 per cent in early trade on Thursday.
72,500–73,000 zone key for Sensex
Sachin Gupta, VP – Technical Research at Choice Equity Broking Private Limited, said: Sensex Options data shows the highest Put OI at 72,600, followed by 72,500, where option writers are active and are likely to provide immediate support. On the upside, 73,000 Call writers continue to hold the highest OI concentration of around 1.45 lakh contracts, making this a significant resistance zone. The Call OI concentration near 73,000 suggests the index may struggle to sustain gains above this level. With PCR at 1.07, the options setup remains relatively balanced, making the 72,500–73,000 zone important for the next directional move.
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Hawkish policy, inflation may weigh on equities
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said the domestic monetary policy shift comes against a potentially less favourable inflation backdrop, with market expectations pointing to the repo rate moving toward 6% by December. “A combination of tighter monetary policy and rising inflation expectations could weigh particularly on rate-sensitive sectors and limit the scope for a sustained recovery in equities,” he added.
Oil prices add to external risks
Geopolitical risks are adding pressure to the external backdrop. “Reports of strikes on Saudi airports amid renewed fighting involving the Houthis have heightened concerns over regional stability and energy supplies. WTI crude is trading around $88–$90 a barrel, while Brent remains above $100. A prolonged period of elevated oil prices would increase pressure on India’s inflation outlook while widening the import bill and adding to risks around the current account and the rupee,” he further said.
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Earnings season may drive stock-specific volatility
Osho Krishan, Chief Manager – Technical & Derivative Research, Angel One, said: Going ahead, the commencement of the quarterly earnings season is likely to bring renewed focus on stock-specific opportunities and could trigger heightened volatility in the coming period. “At the same time, developments surrounding global concerns will remain crucial and could act as a key catalyst for the broader market trend. For now, traders are advised to maintain disciplined risk management and adopt a stock specific approach, particularly as the broader market direction remains uncertain,” he advised.
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