Every week, Mint’s Plain Facts highlights key data releases and announcements to watch in the week ahead. This week’s data releases will offer fresh signals on price pressures, India’s growth outlook, trade flows, employment trends and the impact of the West Asia war on global oil supplies.
India’s retail inflation data for the month of September will show whether rising food and fuel costs are pushing headline inflation higher and whether core inflation is broadening beyond precious jewellery.
The IMF’s latest growth projections will come after stronger-than-expected June-quarter growth prompted several institutions to raise their forecasts for India for the current fiscal. India’s global GDP ranking will also be watched after GDP revisions and rupee depreciation pushed it to sixth place in the IMF’s April outlook, from the previously expected fourth.
Trade data will offer clues to the impact of US tariff threats and the first full month of India-UK trade under their free trade agreement. Further, the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) for September will give a snapshot of the latest unemployment figures in the country, and Opec’s oil market report will track shifts in crude production as the West Asia war continues to disrupt major producers.
Mounting prices
India’s retail inflation data for September may show a further rise in price pressures amid rising food prices, higher fuel costs and an unfavourable base effect. A Mint poll of 19 economists , up from 4.8% in August and its highest level in 23 months. If the number holds true, this would be the first reading above 5% since December 2024 and the fourth consecutive month that inflation has remained above the Reserve Bank of India’s 4% medium-term target.
Food inflation rose to 6% in August and could remain elevated amid deficient rainfall, which was 15% below normal. Fuel costs are also under pressure from the West Asia war, with crude oil prices rising again. Higher input costs are feeding through to consumer prices, while stronger-than-expected of 7.8% in the June quarter adds to inflation concerns.
An unfavourable base effect over the coming months could further push up headline inflation. Core inflation, which excludes food, electricity, gas and other fuels as per CMIE, rose to 4.3% in August. Even after excluding precious jewellery prices, it stood at 3.1%, up from 1.9% before the West Asia war.
Slim win
India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed 1.3% year-on-year to $26.87 billion in August. A Mint analysis of its top 100 trading partners showed that India’s trade balance improved with 51 countries, up from 47 in July, while it worsened with 42, marginally down from 43 last month. However, the balance deteriorated sharply with four major partners: China, Russia, the UAE and the US, accounting for about $5.4 billion of the decline. Overall, the deterioration with some partners widened the deficit by $11.7 billion year-on-year, almost offsetting the $11.6 billion improvement with others.
September’s data, due this week, will show whether gains across more trading partners continued to offset losses with major economies. Trade with the US will be closely watched a year after additional tariffs widened India’s trade deficit, with bilateral talks stalled and Washington threatening further tariffs over Russian oil imports. The data will also offer the first full-month picture of India-UK trade after the free trade agreement took effect. India’s trade surplus with the UK narrowed 4.5% year-on-year to $527 million in August. September’s figures will show whether this continued or the balance improved.
Growth test
The IMF will release its World Economic Outlook on Tuesday, updating its assessment of global growth amid persistent geopolitical and trade uncertainty. For India, the projections come at a time when stronger-than-expected economic growth has contrasted with a lower ranking in the global GDP league table. In the estimates released in April, India was widely expected to overtake Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy, but it slipped to sixth place for FY26 and FY27 after a revision to its GDP series and a .
The IMF projected India’s economy to grow 6.5% in FY27 in its April outlook, below estimates from several other institutions. India grew 7.8% in the June quarter, prompting the central bank to raise its full-year growth forecast to 7.1% from 6.7%. Last week, the to 7.1% from 6.6% estimated in its April 2026 India Development Update, while S&P Global Ratings and Moody’s Ratings revised theirs to 7% from 6.6% and 6%, respectively.
Data shows the IMF’s past forecasts have fallen short of actual growth. For FY26, it projected growth of 6.2% in April 2025 and 6.6% in October 2025, against actual growth of 7.7%. The latest outlook will offer a fresh assessment of the growth and ranking decision.
Crude reset
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) will release its September oil market report on Tuesday, as the West Asia war continues to disrupt crude production.
Since the conflict began in late February, output trends among major producers have diverged, with Iran and Saudi Arabia recording sustained declines while the UAE has seen a sharp uptick in production. Iran’s average daily crude production fell 8.1% year-on-year in March, with the decline widening to 35.2% by August. Saudi Arabia saw its output fall 14.9% in March and 25.1% in August. Iraq and the UAE, which recorded year-on-year declines of 57.9% and 35.6%, respectively, in March, have since recovered. By August, Iraq’s output remained 15.9% below its year-earlier level, while the UAE recorded a 17.8% increase, standing out among major producers. Russia, another Opec+ member, saw a smaller decline of 5% in August.
While these major producers have recorded significant declines in output in recent months, smaller producers like Venezuela and Oman were among the countries to see a sharp rise in crude production at 22.3% and 17.7%, respectively.
Job trends
The statistics ministry will release monthly PLFS data for September on Thursday, providing the latest estimates of India’s unemployment rate, labour force participation rate (LFPR) and worker population ratio (WPR). The data will show whether unemployment remains around 5% or rises, as it did during the same period last year.
The unemployment rate edged up to 5.2% in September 2025 from 5.1% in August. The increase was concentrated in rural areas, where joblessness rose from 4.3% to 4.6% as the kharif sowing season ended and the monsoon waned.
Urban unemployment also edged up, from 6.7% to 6.8%. This year, rural and urban unemployment have moved in opposite directions. The rural unemployment rate eased to 4.1% in August from 5.1% in May, while the urban rate rose to 6.8% from 6.6%. The increase in urban joblessness was more pronounced among women, whose unemployment rate climbed to 8.9% in August from 8.2% in May. Among urban men, the rate has remained close to 6% since December 2025.