Expert view: Rahul Ghose, the founder and CEO of Octanom Tech and Hedged.in, expects the Indian stock market to remain rangebound by Diwali 2025 unless a decisive catalyst emerges. For Nifty 50, he sees immediate resistance around 25,100, and believes a break above this could signal renewed optimism. In an interview with Mint, Ghose shared his views on the recent GST reforms, sectors he is positive about, his top stock picks from various sectors and also how a US Fed rate cut in September may impact market sentiment. Here are edited excerpts of the interview:
What is your near-term outlook for the Nifty 50? Where do you see the index by Diwali 2025?
The near-term outlook for the Nifty 50 is cautiously consolidated. Volatility is expected as technical indicators remain mixed and sentiment is watchful.
By Diwali 2025, the index is likely to remain range-bound unless a decisive catalyst—such as a strong pickup in earnings or a positive global shift—emerges. Therefore, it is prudent for investors to adopt a balanced or “sell on rise” approach for now.
As of early September 2025, the Nifty 50 is hovering near 24,800, slightly above recent supports, but showing an inability to sustain upward momentum.
Technical indicators like MACD and ADX point to weak trends and potential consolidation through the festive season, unless global or domestic news triggers a breakout.
Immediate resistance stands around 25,100; a break past this could signal renewed optimism, but downside risks remain if supports at 24,400–24,000 are breached.
How do you see the recent GST reforms? Can they offset concerns over Trump’s tariffs and geopolitical chaos?
The new GST 2.0 regime, effective September 22, 2025, simplifies tax slabs to 5%, 18%, and 40%, significantly lowering rates on daily essentials and key consumer goods like healthcare, agriculture inputs, and mid-range autos.
These reforms are expected to boost consumption, soften inflation, and inject medium-term growth, particularly in the FMCG, auto, and durables sectors. They will give a positive domestic offset to any headwinds from US tariff moves or geopolitical disruptions.
While Trump’s tariffs add to global uncertainty, a buoyant GST-driven demand cycle may cushion the Indian economy and keep domestic markets buoyant despite external noise.
Which sectors would you bet on for the next 2-3 years? What are your top picks from those sectors?
(i) Consumer staples/FMCG: With lower GST, essentials, household goods, and branded foods should see demand revival. Hindustan Unilever (HUL), Dabur, Nestle India, and Colgate Palmolive (India) are the top picks.
(ii) Automobiles: GST cuts on small cars, bikes, and EVs make Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors, and Hero MotoCorp attractive for medium-term plays.
(iii) Healthcare and insurance: Reduced GST on insurance/products supports HDFC Life, ICICI Lombard, Dr. Reddy’s Labs, and Apollo Hospitals.
(iv) Green and new energy: Tax benefits for EVs, hydrogen vehicles, and related infrastructure favour Tata Power, Adani Green, and Mahindra & Mahindra.
(v) Technology/IT services: With global IT spending stabilising, select value is emerging in quality IT stocks.
The Fed will most likely cut rates in September. Do you think it will have any material impact on market sentiment?
The Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 0.25 per cent in mid-September. This move may bring incremental liquidity and improve risk sentiment globally, though its direct impact on Indian equities is likely to be limited unless accompanied by dovish forward guidance.
While short-term rallies may occur, India’s market cycles are currently more responsive to domestic growth stories, reforms like GST, and corporate results than US monetary moves.
Nifty Bank has underperformed Nifty in the recent past. What is behind this underperformance? Can the trend reverse anytime soon?
Nifty Bank has recently lagged behind Nifty due to rising bad loan concerns, a slowdown in credit growth, and investor preference for secular growth stocks over cyclical financials.
Technical charts confirm a bearish trend, with the index consistently posting lower highs and volatility remaining elevated.
Until asset quality and loan growth improve, bank stocks may stay subdued—but any visible pickup in credit demand or easing of regulatory concerns could trigger a reversal. Monitoring Q2/Q3 earnings and credit trends is critical.
Do you see value emerging in the IT sector? If one has to bet for the long term, what IT stocks would you suggest?
Despite global volatility, select IT stocks are emerging as attractive for long-term investors.
The sector has faced margin pressures and moderated growth, but leaders continue to win new deals and expand in AI, cloud, and cybersecurity.
For long-term bets, consider Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), HCL Technologies, and LTIMindtree for their stable client bases and proven resilience during global market disruptions.
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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of the expert, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.