Gold’s golden run may be losing some of its shine. After an exceptional two-month bull phase, both gold and silver prices have started to cool, prompting many investors to ask: is this the right time to buy, or should you wait it out?
Gold snapped its nine-week winning streak last week, falling more than 3% as investors booked profits ahead of key global events. “Comex gold snapped its nine-week winning streak last week, falling over 3% amid profit-taking ahead of the highly anticipated meeting between President Trump and Xi Jinping later this week,” said Deveya Gaglani, Senior Research Analyst – Commodities, Axis Securities.
He added that progress in US–China trade talks has weighed on demand for safe-haven assets, with top negotiators reaching a preliminary consensus after two days of discussions in Malaysia.
Markets are now turning their focus to central bank decisions, with the US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan set to announce policy updates.
“The Fed is widely anticipated to cut interest rates by 25 bps after softer-than-expected CPI data last week, while both the ECB and BOJ are likely to maintain their policy rates steady,” Gaglani said.
In India, weak physical demand amid record-high prices has further dampened gold’s appeal. “In the domestic market, strong support is placed near the Rs 1,17,000 level, and resistance is seen around the Rs 1,24,000,” he noted.
The broader sentiment in the . “Gold prices continue to decline as safe-haven demand weakens amid optimism over a potential US–China trade deal and a stronger US dollar,” said Darshan Desai, CEO, Aspect Bullion & Refinery.
“This week is a crucial one for the bullion market, with key events including meetings between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, a US Federal Reserve announcement, and several major tech company earnings reports,” he added.
Desai believes investors should prepare for volatility. “Positive news on the trade deal or further gains in the US dollar could prompt more profit-taking in gold. Additionally, if the Federal Reserve signals fewer interest rate cuts than expected in its Wednesday statement, that could put further downward pressure on gold prices.”
After two strong months, silver too faced selling pressure. “The pullback was primarily driven by a stronger dollar index and encouraging developments in US trade negotiations with China and India,” said Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities.
He added that sentiment was also influenced by progress on the Gaza peace front, leading to broad profit-taking.
However, lower-level buying re-emerged as softening inflation data and expectations of Fed rate cuts lent support to the bullion complex. “Gold has support at $4050–4005 while resistance at $4145–4165. Silver has support at $47.80–47.20 while resistance is at $48.65–48.95. In INR, gold has support at Rs 1,22,470–1,21,780 while resistance at Rs 1,23,950–1,24,800. Silver has support at Rs 1,46,250–1,45,150 while resistance at Rs 1,47,950–1,48,780,” Kalantri noted.
According to Aksha Kamboj, Vice President, India Bullion and Jewellers Association and Executive Chairperson, Aspect Global Ventures, the decline is a healthy correction.
“Gold prices were volatile over the past week but ultimately recorded their first weekly decline in over two months. The drop was driven by profit-taking among investors following ETF outflows, easing tensions between the US and China, and overbought market conditions,” she said.
However, the downside may be limited. “Prices found some support at lower levels after a softer US inflation report strengthened expectations of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve,” Kamboj added.
She believes the coming week will be decisive. “The Federal Reserve is set to meet to decide its policy direction, and US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet in South Korea,” Kamboj said.
“Any positive developments from that meeting could weigh on gold prices, as a Fed rate cut already appears to be priced in. Still, the Fed’s commentary will be closely watched for clues about the path ahead.”
(Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. India Today does not recommend or endorse any specific investment or product. Readers are advised to consult professional financial advisors before making investment decisions.)