Target: ₹1,289
CMP: ₹1,077.35
Adani Green Energy (AGEL) is India’s largest and one of the world’s leading renewable energy (RE) companies. Its installed capacity, which was 16.7 GW as of Sep’25, is poised to reach 50 GW by 2030, including the world’s largest 30 GW RE park at Khavda, Gujarat.
Given its strong execution track record, synergies with other group businesses (transmission, distribution and infrastructure), inventory of 2.5 lakh acres of high-quality RE sites, use of cutting-edge technologies (example 5.2 MW wind turbines) and predictable cash flows (81 per cent of capacity tied up under 25-year PPAs), we believe its 50 GW ambition by FY30 is achievable.
We have not given any premium for better execution and scale over its industry peers due to certain company-specific risks viz capacity concentration in the Khavda region (30 GW out of 50 GW vision) and regulatory.
During the last 3 years, the company’s revenue/EBITDA/PAT has grown at a CAGR of 30/36/57 per cent along with improvement in EBITDA margin to 79 per cent and moderation in net debt/EBITDA to 7.4 in FY25. With good visibility of 50 GW by 2030, we estimate AGEL to register revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 29/32/41 per cent during FY25-28 with 83 per cent EBITDA margin.
We value the stock at 14x EBITDA FY28 (run rate EBITDA for 28 GW in FY28). We initiate coverage on the stock with a Buy rating and TP of ₹1,289 per share (21 per cent upside)