Target: ₹390
CMP: ₹264.35
Based on management’s public media interactions, Key takeaways include: The portfolio reset (Nodwin de-subsidiarisation; PokerBaazi and Freaks4U impairments) was undertaken to improve earnings quality and visibility; Core gaming is expected to anchor growth with structurally higher EBITDA margins of 20–25 per cent; The refreshed Enter Magic brand reinforces a push toward AI-enabled, immersive experiences, with ownership of scalable global IPs viewed as the key long-term moat; Management is evaluating larger, IP-led global acquisitions funded via a mix of accruals, debt and equity; Centres of Excellence support scalable execution without integration risk; and With over 90 per cent of revenues generated overseas, execution is centered on compounding growth via LiveOps intensity, AI-driven efficiency and new IP roll-outs.
With portfolio clean-up largely complete and execution improving across mobile, PC/console, ad-tech and offline gaming, NAZARA appears positioned for a more durable growth cycle with improving return metrics and earnings predictability.
We forecast revenue to grow at 27.9 per cent CAGR over FY25–FY28, while EBITDA is expected to compound faster at 48.4 per cent CAGR over the same period, driven by mix improvement, operating leverage and AI-led productivity gains.
Key risks: Execution challenges in IP-led M&A, Gaming IP volatility and regulatory or platform-policy changes impacting monetisation & capital efficiency