Most metals will likely witness a rise in prices in 2026, with tariff uncertainties declining and global demand improving. Copper, aluminium, cobalt and rare earth commodities, particularly uranium, may gain the most, analysts have said.
“We hold a cautiously optimistic outlook for 2026, expecting most mineral and metal prices to edge higher, supported by declining tariff uncertainties, robust demand from sectors linked to the transition to net zero and tighter supply,” said research agency BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions.
However, China’s property market weakness is set to remain a drag on industrial metals price growth, it said.
Copper uncertainty to end
ING Think, the financial and economic analysis wing of Dutch multinational financial services firm ING, said most base metals are likely to remain well supported next year.
“Uncertainty over US refined copper tariffs will likely continue to see strong refined copper flows to the US, tightening up the ex-US market. And this coincides with a persistently tight copper concentrate market,” it said.
Hamburg-based investment banker Berenberg said critical minerals, including copper, will remain firmly in focus in 2026, as Western governments continue efforts to secure and de-risk supply chains.
BMI forecasts most minerals and metals to average higher than in 2025, as the global economy stabilises with easing trade frictions. “Tariff uncertainty peaked in August 2025, and while we could see flare-ups between the US and individual economies over the coming quarters, our Country Risk team expects broad tariff uncertainty to continue to decline over 2026,” it said.
Bouts of volatility
This would provide support demand for commodities in general. However, it said there would be bouts of volatility, especially as certain metals might face renewed US tariff pressures in an attempt to protect critical domestic industries, the research agency said.
“In particular, we see copper on the cards for further tariffs, with the US Secretary of Commerce required to provide an update on the domestic copper market by June 30 2026, to determine whether to implement a universal duty on refined copper of 15 per cent from 2027 and 30 per cent from 2028,” said BMI.
Berenberg said copper is another core theme for 2026. “Analysts believe structural supply deficits and delayed project delivery will keep prices elevated, even as market consensus remains cautious,” it said.
Copper price forecast
The bank forecast copper prices around $12,000 a tonne in 2026.
ING Think said fundamentals remain supportive of copper, with inventories across major exchanges low outside the US, leaving little room to absorb any further supply shocks.
“The long-term bullish narrative remains intact for copper, supported by structural demand from the grid, electrification and renewable infrastructure and, increasingly, from data centres and AI infrastructure,” the Dutch financial firm’s research arm said.
ING Think said the aluminium market will be tight in 2026. “We see further upside for prices in 2026. We expect aluminium to remain in a deficit through 2026, with China’s capacity cap and power constraints outside the country limiting supply growth as demand continues to recover slowly,” it said, forecasting prices to average $2,900 a tonne in 2026.
Tin price outlook
BMI said China’s housing market would weigh on industrial metals consumption, though it could be partially offset by robust growth in green energy transition sectors. This could be supportive of critical minerals, including copper, aluminium, lithium and nickel.
Berenberg sees commodities such as rare earths, uranium, tin and tungsten gaining in 2026. Uranium could gain on supply constraint and its offtake picking up.
BMI has raised its tin price forecast to $35,000 a tonne for 2026 from $32,000, as continued supply issues keep markets on edge in the face of steady demand from the semiconductor industry.
“We expect the tin market to move into a deficit in 2026, as supply issues exacerbate. Over the longer term, we expect demand to remain buoyant, said the research agency.
Nickel price projection
ING Think said the nickel market will remain in surplus through 2026, on continuous supply growth from Indonesia. Nickel will likely remain range-bound due to higher inventories and subdued demand.
On the other hand, supply disruptions threats from Indonesia will limit the downside. It forecast prices averaging at $15,250 a tonne in 2026.