Vodafone Idea gains 1.6% despite analyst skepticism on AGR relief package

rose 1.64 per cent to ₹11.79 on Friday afternoon, continuing recovery from recent sharp selloffs, though analysts remain cautious about the operator’s financial health despite government relief measures. The stocks hit its 52-week high on 31st December, 2025 at ₹12.80.

The Union Cabinet recently approved a relief package freezing the company’s ₹87,695 crore AGR (Adjusted Gross Revenue) dues, with repayment deferred to FY32-41 over a five-year interest-free moratorium. However, contrary to market expectations of at least a 50 per cent waiver, no principal haircut was provided on the pending AGR liabilities.

Emkay Global maintained its “Sell” rating with a target price of ₹6, noting the company’s leverage remains extremely high. The brokerage highlighted that Vodafone Idea’s pre-IndAS116 annualised EBITDA stands at just ₹8.98 billion—merely 6.7 per cent of its spectrum debt—with a cash balance of ₹30.8 billion as of Q2FY26. Management has guided for capex spending of ₹75-80 billion for FY26.

The company faces additional pressure from ₹1.2 trillion in deferred spectrum payment obligations scheduled between FY26 and FY44. Emkay analysts stated current EBITDA is insufficient to meet capex or spectrum debt repayment requirements, and further capital infusion will be crucial for long-term sustainability.

Axis Capital also maintained a “Reduce” rating with a target of ₹9.45, while SBI Securities termed the situation “neutral in the short term.” The Department of Telecom will form a committee to reassess AGR dues within 6-8 months, potentially offering scope for liability reduction.

Trading volumes were heavy with 11,854 lakh shares changing hands, though delivery stood at just 20.97 per cent, indicating significant speculative interest.



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