The Indian rupee is at risk of opening at a lifetime low on Wednesday, with risk aversion triggered by the Greenland dispute compounding persistent pressures and leaving the currency reliant on the central bank’s support.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee is set to open in the 91.04–91.10 range against the dollar, after settling at 90.9750 on Tuesday. The currency’s all-time low is 91.0750, set in mid-December.
Unnerved by US President Donald Trump’s threats over Greenland and the potential for a US–Europe trade dispute linked to the issue, investors swung into risk-off mode, dumped the dollar, and bought into safe-haven assets.
The S&P 500 Index slid about 2% on Tuesday, while the dollar index logged its steepest fall in three weeks and U.S. Treasuries weakened, underscoring the risk-off tone and the return of the “Sell America” theme.
Asian currencies were caught between a softer risk appetite and a weaker dollar, leaving them mixed with limited follow-through.
While in Asia terms, the rupee should be “good”, “the thing is it’s already under pressure so this kind of risk-off just hits it harder than the rest”, a currency trader at a bank said.
“It will be all about the RBI again. They stepped in yesterday, so the question is whether they do enough to stop a break of the all-time low,” he said.
The rupee on Tuesday came within a whisker of its lifetime low, slipping to 91.0525, with bankers saying the Reserve Bank of India was present to support the currency for most of the session.
Further denting risk sentiment was a sell-off in Japanese bonds, which pushed yields to record highs on fiscal concerns.
The move is vying for market attention with the Greenland dispute, and investors focus on Wednesday will by on Trump’s interview at the at Davos, ING Bank said in a note.