The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open lower on Monday, amid the escalating war in the Middle East after the US and Israeli strikes on Iran and the retaliatory attack by the Islamic Republic across the region.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a gap-down start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 25,230 level, a discount of nearly 108 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
The Indian stock market today will react to the war in the Middle East after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the .
On Friday, the Indian stock market ended sharply lower on the escalating US-Iran war, with the benchmark Nifty 50 closing below 25,200 level.
The crashed 961.42 points, or 1.17%, to close at 81,287.19, while the Nifty 50 settled 317.90 points, or 1.25%, lower at 25,178.65.
Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50, and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
Sensex has tested the 81,200–81,000 zone, with further downside risk if volatility persists.
“Immediate resistance is positioned at 82,000 – 82,500. While heavyweight participation offers some structural support, near-term caution prevails amid global uncertainties. The broader structure appears mildly negative with an indecisive undertone, favoring accumulation on weakness rather than aggressive positioning,” said Ponmudi R, CEO – Enrich Money,
Riyank Arora, Associate Vice President – HNI & Derivatives, Hedged.in said that 80,500 and 80,000 will act as important support levels for , while 82,500 and 83,000 are likely to cap any pullback on the upside.
“The inability to reclaim higher resistance zones keeps the short-term bias negative. Overall, both benchmark indices are trading with a weak trend. Until a decisive breakout above resistance levels is seen, rallies are likely to face selling pressure and caution is advised,” said Arora.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 formed a long bearish candle on the daily chart. For the week, the index slumped 1.54%, with the negative formation on the weekly chart indicating signs of distribution at higher levels.
“A long bear candle has been formed on the daily chart that indicates a sharp breakdown of descending triangle type pattern. The crucial huge opening upside gap of 3rd February has almost been filled around 25,100 (left with small margin). This is not a good sign,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
According to him, the underlying trend of Nifty 50 is sharply down, and the overall negative chart pattern signals further downside to 24,700 levels in the near term. Immediate resistance is placed at 25,400.
Nilesh Jain, VP- Head of Technical and Derivative research at Centrum Finverse Ltd. noted that the slipped below its crucial 200-DMA placed at 25,350, which is now expected to act as an immediate resistance zone.
“Nifty 50 index continues to exhibit a lower top and lower bottom formation on the daily chart, reflecting a weakening trend. Momentum indicators remain cautious, with the MACD signaling a sell crossover and the RSI gradually drifting lower. Meanwhile, India VIX moved up by 5% to around 13.50, and any further rise in volatility could intensify downside risks,” said Jain.
He believes the key psychological support is now seen at the 25,000 mark, and the overall structure points towards continued weakness, with pullbacks likely to face selling pressure.
Riyank Arora said that the immediate support for Nifty 50 is placed near 25,000, followed by a stronger base around 24,800. On the upside, he added that 25,400 and 25,500 remain key resistance zones.
“Unless the index sustains above these levels, the broader trend remains weak with risk of further downside,” Arora said.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty index ended 658.70 points, or 1.08%, lower at 60,529.00 on Friday. For the week, the index lost 1.08% and formed a short-term double-top pattern.
“The 60,300 – 60,250 zone will act as a crucial support base for the Bank Nifty index. A breach below this range could drag toward the 59,500 level. On the upside, the 60,700 – 60,800 zone is expected to act as a significant resistance band. A sustained breakout above 60,900 could pave the way for a near-term rally toward 61,500 level in the short term,” said Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.
Dr. Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer from Master Capital Services Ltd. highlighted that the Bank Nifty index has violated its 21-day EMA (60,614) and is currently testing a crucial rising trendline support. The RSI (14) has dipped toward 50, indicating a loss in bullish momentum, while the MACD has flashed a fresh bearish crossover below its signal line.
“For this week, the 60,000 psychological mark serves as an important support level and a decisive breakdown could drag the Bank Nifty index toward the 59,500 support zone. On the upside, 61,000 and 61,500 act as immediate supply zones. Strategy remains sell on rise until the index decisively reclaims the 61,000 level,” said Singh.
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