A sudden spike in crude oil prices and rising geopolitical tensions have rattled global markets, dragging the Nifty 50 sharply lower and breaking key technical supports. With volatility rising, market experts warn that the index may now be vulnerable to further downside, with 23,000, 22,000, and even 19,000 emerging as critical levels if the conflict escalates.
Indian stock market benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty 50 came under intense selling pressure on Monday, as rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran rattled global markets and pushed crude oil prices to nearly $120 per barrel.
The sharp spike in oil prices has triggered widespread risk-off sentiment across financial markets, leading to a broad sell-off in equities while increasing concerns over inflation, supply disruptions and global economic growth.
The crashed to its its intraday low of 76,573.01, marking a decline of 2,345.89 points. Meanwhile, the also tumbled to its session low of 23,739.2, registering a fall of 711.25 points.
The conflict has intensified concerns about disruptions to global energy supplies, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime route through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply typically passes.
Oil shock deepens market volatility
The latest geopolitical developments triggered a massive spike in energy prices. Brent crude futures jumped $15.51, or 16.7%, to $108.20 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $14.23, or 15.7%, to $105.13.
Earlier in the session, surged even higher, with WTI jumping 31.4% to $119.48 per barrel and Brent climbing nearly 29% to $119.50. The surge came after oil had already rallied sharply the previous week, when Brent rose 27% and WTI gained 35.6%.
Prices later trimmed gains after reports that G7 finance ministers and the International Energy Agency could discuss releasing emergency oil reserves. Additionally, Saudi Aramco reportedly offered prompt crude supplies through rare tenders to ease market shortages.
How much further can Nifty fall?
Market experts believe that if geopolitical tensions continue to escalate, Indian equities could remain volatile in the near term, with key technical levels coming into focus.
According to Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited, Nifty may face further downside if crucial technical supports fail to hold.
“A plunge to 23535 is awaited that would complete a 61.8 retracement of the upmove since March 2025. Breach of the same should see multi leg downsides initially aiming the March 2025 low near 22000 and November 2023 low near 19000. Near term upside prospects depend on the ability to float above 24000.”
analysts also point to a weakening market structure after the index broke key support levels.
Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Broking, said the market’s sharp gap-down start reflected growing investor anxiety amid global uncertainty.
“Indian equity markets opened under significant pressure on 9th March 2026, with the Nifty 50 witnessing a sharp gap-down start amid heightened global risk aversion linked to escalating geopolitical tensions and a spike in crude oil prices.”
Tailor added that the Nifty had broken below the crucial 24,050 level, which coincides with the 100-week exponential moving average (EMA) — historically a strong reversal zone. According to him, this breakdown signals deteriorating technical momentum and increases the probability of further downside.
He believes that if geopolitical tensions intensify further, the Nifty could drift toward the 23,000–22,900 range, which now emerges as the next key short-term support area. On the upside, he sees 24,300–24,500 acting as a strong resistance zone where selling pressure may emerge.
Other market experts note that the recent decline has been driven largely by risk aversion rather than fundamental weakness in India’s economy.
“Nifty is currently trading around the 23,375 mark and has already corrected nearly 10% from its recent peak. Such sharp drawdowns largely reflect risk-off sentiment driven by geopolitical uncertainty rather than deterioration in domestic fundamentals.” said Gaurav Udani, Founder of Thincredblu Securities.
Udani believes that historically important technical levels indicate 22,700–23,200 as a key support band for the index. However, he cautioned that markets may remain extremely sensitive to developments related to the conflict, meaning volatility could persist until there is clarity on the geopolitical situation.
Overall, analysts say the trajectory of global crude prices and the intensity of the Middle East conflict will remain the most important factors determining whether the Nifty stabilises near current levels or slides deeper toward 23,000 — or even lower.
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