Reliance Industries share price traded higher on Friday even as the broader Indian stock market remained under heavy pressure amid escalating US-Iran war in the Middle East. Reliance Industries shares gained as much as 0.62% to ₹1,400.50 apiece on the BSE.
The gains in Reliance share price today came despite a sharp selloff in equities, as the benchmark BSE Sensex crashed over 900 points and the declined 1%. The weakness in the global stock markets has largely been driven by concerns over the ongoing US-Iran war, which has pushed crude oil prices sharply higher and heightened fears of supply disruptions.
The effective blockade of the — a critical global energy corridor that accounts for nearly 20% of global oil and LNG supply — has further intensified worries around energy security and inflation.
However, analysts believe the current environment could support the earnings outlook for Reliance Industries’ oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business.
According to analysts at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, supply disruptions in global oil markets and delays in supply chain normalization could keep product cracks elevated, supporting refining and petrochemical margins for Reliance Industries.
Motilal Oswal has reiterated a ‘Buy’ rating on shares with a target price of ₹1,750 per share, implying an upside potential of nearly 26% from Thursday’s closing price.
Refining margins have witnessed a sharp uptick amid tightening product balances. In March 2026 so far, gasoil, gasoline and jet fuel cracks have averaged $42, $16 and $58 per barrel, respectively — up 147%, 40% and 124% above their long-term averages. Higher refining margins could meaningfully boost profitability for the O2C segment.
For Reliance Industries, every $1 per barrel increase in gross refining margin (GRM) is estimated to raise consolidated EBITDA by around 2.5%.
Petrochemical prices have also strengthened amid supply disruptions and rising input costs. Polyethylene (PE) and paraxylene (PX) prices have increased by 10–15% month-on-month (MoM) in March, while naphtha prices have surged about 34% during the same period.
Disruptions in the Middle East have forced several Asian refiners and petrochemical producers to cut operating rates and declare force majeure, as steam crackers reliant on the region for over 60% of their naphtha feedstock face shortages.
However, Reliance Industries remains relatively insulated from rising crude-linked feedstock costs due to its diversified raw material mix, comprising roughly 30% ethane, 40% refinery off-gases and only about 30% crude-linked naphtha. This could help sustain petrochemical spreads even as prices rise, Motilal Oswal said.
The brokerage firm estimates that if gasoil, gasoline and jet fuel cracks remain about $15, $5 and $15 per barrel above historical averages during the first half of FY27, Reliance Industries’ O2C EBITDA could rise by around ₹17,000 crore.
That said, the brokerage cautioned that the reintroduction of export duties on fuels — similar to the windfall tax imposed in July 2022 — could cap refining margins and limit the upside to O2C earnings.
Using a sum-of-the-parts (SoTP) valuation approach, Motilal Oswal values the O2C and exploration & production segments at 7.5x and 5.0x FY28E EV/EBITDA, respectively, arriving at an enterprise value of ₹5.7 lakh crore for the standalone business.
It assigns an equity valuation of ₹590 per share to Jio Platforms and ₹560 per share to Reliance Retail Ventures. The brokerage values the new energy business at ₹174 per share, while Reliance Consumer Products and JioStar are valued at ₹30 and ₹26 per share, respectively.
Technical Outlook
According to Ruchit Jain, Head, Equity Technical Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, is going through a consolidation phase wherein a support base has been formed at ₹1,300 level.
However, he believes that the 50 DEMA at ₹1,435 and swing high at ₹1,490 are the immediate resistances which needs to be surpassed for a trended upmove.
Reliance Industries share price has fallen 2% in one month, and has dropped 11% on a year-to-date (YTD) basis. The stock has gained 12% in one year, and has rallied 32% in three years. Over the past five years, Reliance share price has delivered 41% returns.
At 11:10 AM, Reliance share price was trading 0.08% higher at ₹1,392.95 apiece on the .
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.