The Rupee opened above the 94 mark against the US Dollar for the first time, and yields of Government Securities (G-Secs) jumped amid the raging war in West Asia, rising crude oil prices, and outflows from domestic equity markets.
The Indian currency opened 21 paise weaker at 94.1875 per USD, down from its previous close of 93.9775. The Rupee has traded at a high/low of 94.1875/94.3025 so far in intraday trading, per CCIL data. It is currently trading at 94.29.
Amit Pabari, MD, CR, Forex Advisors, said: “Right now, the market is caught between hope and hesitation. While the global impact of the (Middle-East) conflict suggests there is increasing pressure for de-escalation, the path to that outcome remains unclear.
“If tensions ease meaningfully, the rupee could see a recovery of around ₹1 to ₹1.5. But until there is clarity, volatility is likely to persist.”
Pabari assessed that, technically, the 94.00–94.20 zone is expected to act as strong psychological resistance, with the central bank likely to be present. On the downside, 92.80–93.00 is emerging as a key support zone.
Bond yields harden
The fiscal impact of the Government announcement to cut special excise duty on petrol and diesel pushed up the G-Sec yields, with the benchmark 10-year G-Sec currently trading at a yield of 6.93 per cent, up 5 basis points over the previous close of 6.88 per cent.
Madhavi Arora, Chief Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd, assessed that the annualised fiscal hit to the government due to the cuts in special excise duty on petrol and diesel by ₹10/litre each would be ₹1.55 lakh crore.
The Government is absorbing 30-40% of annualised losses of oil marketing companies (OMCs) on auto fuel at current prices, she said.