Four districts in three States — Punjab, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh — are likely to lose 10-15 per cent of their production due to unseasonal rainfall, according to a preliminary report by private agency Agriwatch. The agency was commissioned by the Roller Flour Millers’ Federation of India. On the other hand, 5-10 per cent crop damage has been reported from as many as 21 districts in five States.
The overall yield loss in wheat at the pan-India level could be 1-1.5 per cent, sources said, adding the loss may be 2–3 per cent in highly affected States. The government has estimated India’s wheat production this year to touch a record 120.21 million tonnes.
According to the India Meteorological Department, unseasonal rains along with sporadic hailstorms were observed during March 11-22 in many districts of wheat-growing Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. Though some damage to the wheat crop has been reported from West Bengal and Gujarat, those were negligible, sources said.
2 major concerns
Farmers in many of the affected districts said that lodging and damage to matured crops from hailstorms were two major causes of concern, which may affect the quality, potentially causing lustre loss in the grain. Shrivelling of grain has also been reported as before the rain there was a sudden spurt in day temperatures as high as 35 degrees Celsius in some States.
“Unlike in 2022 when temperature rise was sudden and persisted for a longer period in March, this time the unseasonal rain helped cool down the temperature and even if there is loss where the rainfall was heavy and there were strong winds, overall impact may be lower,” said Balbir Tyagi, a farmer in UP’s Hapur district.
Quoting the Agriwatch report, sources said the rain impacted wheat-growing regions across northern and central India, particularly affecting crops at the grain filling to maturity stage. The impact varied spatially, with localised pockets of moderate to high damage amid largely low-intensity losses.
High damage pockets (10–15 per cent) are limited and scattered in parts of northern Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Bihar and West Bengal, the sources said. Moderate damage zones (5–10 per cent) are more widely distributed, especially across Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, indicating rainfall-induced stress during critical crop stages.
UP most hit
However, low to very low impact areas (less than 5 per cent) cover a majority of districts across Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat, suggesting partial yield and quality loss rather than severe crop failure. In the remaining areas, dispersed across all States, the damage is negligible, the sources said.
Uttar Pradesh emerges as the most extensively affected State, with damage ranging from high (only in Bijnor district) to moderate and low categories in 23 districts, reflecting widespread impact. Punjab too has high damage only in Rupnagar (formerly Ropar) though 14 districts in total have been affected.
As many as 10 districts of Bihar have reported damage, out of which only Begusarai and Supaul may have higher losses (10-15 per cent) whereas Madhubani, Nalanda and Sitamarhi districts may have 5-10 per cent yield drop.
On the other hand, Haryana recorded widely distributed but mostly low to moderate losses due to lodging and moisture stress, the sources said. Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan also have low-intensity impacts in isolated pockets.