India’s diesel exports to Southeast Asia surged to the highest in more than seven years in March, shipping data showed, as traders pivoted supply to cover short positions and refiners cashed in on higher profits in Asia caused by the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.
The surge in exports could boost spot sale margins for Indian refiners who have purchased large volumes of prompt Russian crude to replace Middle East supply disrupted by the war.
About 1 million metric tonnes (7.45 million barrels) of diesel have been shipped on this trade route, according to data from analytics firm Kpler and three trade sources, with around half of the volumes bound for Singapore.
Around 90% of these volumes were shipped by Reliance Industries, Kpler data showed, operator of the world’s largest refining complex.
Reliance did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.
SUPPLY PIVOTS AFTER NARROW EAST-WEST PRICE SPREAD
Traders tapped India’s diesel supply for Southeast Asia and Australia after the Middle East conflict disrupted crude supplies to Asia, leading refineries to cut output and countries including China to ban exports of refined products.
“Asian buyers that usually rely on Chinese and northeast Asia must seek alternative supply, with India’s Reliance being one of the main candidates in the region,” analysts from consultancy FGE NexantECA said.
India is known as a swing supplier in global oil markets as it can sell its refined products either to Europe or Asia, whichever is more profitable.
These shipments will help to ease supply tightness going into April, traders said. Some analysts expect the trend to last in the near term despite the Indian government reinstating export taxes for diesel.
Sparta Commodities’ analyst James Noel-Beswick said its arbitrage calculations suggested that the trade flow can continue into August at least.
“India appears firmly committed to keeping its refineries at capacity, and Washington’s rather permissive stance on both Russian and Iranian purchases has given it the means to do so,” he added.
The U.S. has issued temporary waivers for the sale of Russian and Iranian oil cargoes at sea to ease global prices.
Front month April east-west price spreads, the difference between Singapore paper swaps on a free on board basis and ICE gasoil futures, narrowed to an average discount of $20 a ton in the week of March 27, LSEG pricing data showed, with spreads trading at premiums for some sessions.
Traders typically deem a discount of less than $40 a ton to be more favourable for them to pivot cargoes to east of Suez markets instead of west.