As the conflict in West Asia fuels uncertainty over the production and export of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), India is expected to further increase its share of imports of natural gas liquids (NGLs) from the US, which is already at a record high in the last calendar year.
For instance, NGL exports from the US to India rose from a mere 2,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2016 to an all-time high of 139,000 b/d last calendar year. NGLs are part of the same family of molecules as natural gas and crude oil. Ethane, propane, butane, isobutane and pentane are all NGLs
Refiners, analysts and trade sources pointed out that attacks on oil and gas infrastructure in the Middle East Gulf (MEG) region led to LPG production being impacted. This has become a problem for India, which is almost totally dependent on the region for 90 per cent of its imports of the key cooking fuel.
As per Vortexa, MEG (excluding Iran) is India’s largest supplier of LPG, covering 92 per cent, or roughly 720,000 barrels per day (b/d), of the country’s imports as of 2025.
LPG imports from the US to go up
“India is already buying 10 per cent of its LPG imports from Washington. This may increase further. America emerged as India’s major source for LPG, even more so as the war led to closure of the Strait of Hormuz (SoH), highlighting a major drawback for India’s sourcing,” said a refining sector official.
India will manage a few cargoes from Russia, Japan, etc. “However, many feel it will focus more on US NGLs, which it is already buying in large numbers from Washington, due to the trade talks,” he added.
Last week, Anna Zhminko, Associate Market Analyst at Vortexa, said that as uncertainty persists over MEG LPG production, US is likely to remain firmly positioned in the Asian markets at least through May and the first half of June 2026.
“MEG LPG exports, largely comprising evenly-split cargoes, supplied 92 per cent of India’s and 26 per cent of South-East Asia’s imports in 2025. With regional exports still constrained and butane Far East swaps retaining $100 per tonne premium over propane (March 25, Argus), this brings opportunity for the US. Being the largest supplier of LPG outside the MEG, US exporters are likely to increase butane split in their export cargo mix, when US export cargoes have historically had higher propane content,” she added.
According to the US EIA, NGL exports grew by 212,000 b/d last year with a 70,000 b/d (101 per cent) increase in exports to India. In 2025, the US exported a total of 579,000 b/d of ethane to nine countries. A little more than 50 per cent of US ethane exports went to China, with the second-highest volume going to Canada by pipeline and the third-highest volume going to India by tanker.
There was a significant rise in US butane exports to India, which increased to 36,000 b/d in 2025, a 34,000 b/d increase from the previous year. Similarly, Washington’s propane exports to India rose from 2,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2024 calendar year to a record 41,000 b/d in 2025.
Since the onset of the conflict, multiple LPG sites have been interrupted such as the UAE’s Al Ruwais Industrial Complex, Qatari Pearl GTL plant in Ras Laffan and Kuwaiti gas processing facility at the Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery. Besides, there were pre-conflict issues at Saudi Arabia’s Juaymah terminal in Ras Tanura.
“Even if transits through Hormuz were to resume under usual circumstances, at least around 220,000 b/d of LPG exports could be expected to remain offline for a longer period (referencing Juaymah terminal and Ras Laffan outages),” Zhminko said.
The remaining combined volumes from the mentioned facilities reflect roughly 925,000 b/d and most likely are not expected to recover to full operating levels very soon. This reflects 75 per cent of MEG mainstream LPG exports, she added.