India’s LPG supply situation may seem to have stabilised after weeks of disruption, but the crisis is not fully over yet, with experts warning that risks remain high and structural dependence on imports.
There are Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian has said Tehran is willing to end the conflict with the United States and Israel, but only if it gets credible guarantees that such attacks will not happen again, according to AFP.
Speaking to European Council President Antonio Costa, he stressed that any resolution must include safeguards. However, despite these signals, the energy supply situation remains uncertain and fragile as per experts.
Vaibhav Maloo said the current situation should be seen as “temporary relief, not a full all-clear”, even as supply conditions have improved.
Maloo said India has managed to stabilise household LPG supply through emergency measures, and the government has reported no dry-outs at distributorships.
“I would call it temporary relief, not a full all-clear geopolitical risk is still elevated,” he said.
He added that domestic LPG production has been increased by about 25%, while commercial LPG allocations have been restored to nearly 70% of pre-crisis levels.
“The system is recovering rather than collapsing,” he noted.
However, ground realities remain mixed. Sharing a personal example, Maloo said he was unable to get LPG at a restaurant due to shortages, highlighting that supply gaps still exist in parts of the country.
Despite recent stabilisation, India remains highly dependent on imports.
Maloo said and nearly 90% of these imports usually come from the Middle East, largely through routes linked to the Strait of Hormuz.
“India remains materially exposed the vulnerability is high but not unmanageable,” he said.
This dependence means that any escalation in the region could quickly disrupt supplies again.
Even as national-level supply has improved, shortages continue in certain segments.
“Yes, there is still ground-level tightness, especially for commercial and industrial users,” Maloo said.
He added that domestic household supply remains stable, but non-domestic supply is being restored gradually.
“The Centre has steadily increased commercial allocation to ease on-the-ground stress,” he noted.
India has started diversifying its LPG imports to reduce dependence on the Middle East.
Maloo said alternative sources like the US, Argentina and parts of Africa are helping ease pressure.
“They can meaningfully reduce pressure, but not fully replace the Gulf in the short term,” he said.
He added that over time, these regions could build capacity to supply more LPG to India.
Data shows that the Middle East’s share in India’s seaborne LPG imports has dropped to around 55% in March from nearly 90%, reflecting a clear diversification push.
The Iran conflict has significantly increased risks around shipping and logistics.
“Yes, the conflict has clearly raised marine risk, insurance costs and transit uncertainty,” Maloo said.
India has avoided sending ships routinely into high-risk zones, leading to delays and stranded vessels. However, supply has been partly managed through rerouting and alternative sourcing.
At the same time, a new risk is emerging. Iran is reportedly encouraging Yemen’s Houthi rebels to prepare for a renewed campaign targeting Red Sea shipping, according to Bloomberg.
The Houthis have already shown their intent, launching missiles towards Israel and warning of possible attacks on vessels passing through the Bab el-Mandeb strait.
Between 2023 and 2025, Houthi attacks on more than 100 ships forced global shipping firms to reroute vessels, increasing costs and delays. A fresh escalation could disrupt another key route, adding to the risks already present in the Gulf.
Experts say the current situation
“Yes, this is bigger than a temporary war shock it highlights a structural concentration risk,” Maloo said.
India’s heavy reliance on one region for LPG imports has made it vulnerable to such disruptions.
He also said the country needs to look at alternatives like induction cooking in the long term to reduce dependence on LPG.
Maloo outlined both immediate and long-term steps.
In the short term, he said India should:
Continue protecting household supply
Source more cargo from non-Gulf regions
Build larger buffer stocks
“In the immediate term, India should keep protecting household supply and build larger buffer stock,” he said.
In the long term, he suggested:
Deeper supplier diversification
More storage and shipping flexibility
Faster expansion of PNG infrastructure
He also pointed out that India should increase its energy reserves.
“China has significantly higher reserves India should also now look to secure reserves and store LNG, crude oil and LPG in higher volumes,” he said.
While supply has improved and emergency measures have worked, experts say the situation is still fragile.
With geopolitical tensions continuing, new risks emerging in global shipping routes, and structural dependence still high, India’s LPG supply remains exposed.
For now, the crisis may have eased, but it is far from fully over.