From a sharp slowdown in manufacturing activity, to international airfares coming under pressure as jet fuel costs surge, India’s nationwide rollout of E20 fuel, foreign portfolio investors posting their biggest equity pullout in over three decades, excise duty cuts stoking fiscal slippage risks, and basmati rice exporters feeling the heat of the Iran war—here’s a round-up of this week’s news in numbers.
Manufacturing meltdown
The impact of the West Asia war is beginning to show in India’s factory activity, with the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) slipping to a 45-month low of 53.9 in March. This level was last seen in June 2022, when the sector was still recovering from the pandemic slowdown. While a reading above 50 indicates expansion, the pace has slowed sharply.
According to the PMI report, disruptions linked to the West Asia conflict are rippling through the global economy, including India. Domestic manufacturing has been hit by a shortage of gas—a key feedstock—amid a supply crunch, with the government prioritizing consumer demand over industrial use.
Jet fuel surge
The West Asia war has triggered a deepening global energy squeeze, with fresh spillovers into India’s aviation sector. The latest flashpoint is jet fuel, where prices have jumped, raising the likelihood of airfare increases. Aviation turbine fuel (ATF) recorded its steepest monthly rise in at least two years, with Delhi prices climbing 8.6% to ₹1.05 lakh per kilolitre, though lower than initially announced.
On Wednesday, state-run oil marketing companies briefly hiked jet fuel prices by more than 100% before rolling back the increase for domestic scheduled flights following government intervention.
International routes, however, will bear the full increase, setting the stage for costlier overseas travel ahead of the peak summer season. With ATF accounting for a substantial share of airline operating costs, carriers are expected to pass on the higher burden, making outbound travel more expensive in the coming weeks.
Investor exodus
FY26 proved turbulent for Indian equities, with foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) turning decisively bearish amid mounting global headwinds—from US-led tariff disruptions to the West Asia war.
Net FPI outflows totalled ₹1.8 trillion in FY26, the highest since records began in 1992, according to a of National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL) data, exceeding all previous episodes, including the global financial crisis in FY09.
The selloff intensified towards end of the year, with March 2026 alone recording ₹1.2 trillion in outflows, as geopolitical uncertainty fuelled fears of FY27 earnings downgrades and unsettled India’s macroeconomic outlook. The post-pandemic earnings surge that once attracted FPIs has lost steam, and with the rupee weakening nearly 10.5% over the past year, foreign investors are increasingly quick to pull back at the first sign of risk.
Rushed move?
From 1 April, petrol pumps across India will dispense E20 fuel—petrol blended with 20% ethanol—following a mid-February government mandate aimed at reducing crude import dependence. Vehicle readiness, however, presents a more sobering picture.
A analysis of transport ministry data from the Vahan dashboard shows fewer than 30% of petrol passenger vehicles and two-wheelers registered in 2025 were E20-compliant, which is roughly 0.9 million of 3.36 million passenger vehicles, and 5.2 million of 13.76 million two-wheelers.
Even this understates the challenge. As most vehicles sold in 2025 came equipped with E20-ready engines, the data is skewed towards recent registrations. A longer-term view, based on 15 years of vehicle registration data, shows ethanol-compliant vehicles account for just 3% of the total and two-wheeler fleet currently on Indian roads.
Numbers talk
₹10,000 crore: The amount Bharti Airtel Ltd is estimated to have paid in adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues to the government by 31 March, reported.
5.2%: India’s industrial production grew 5.2% year-on-year in February, led by robust manufacturing output and supported by moderate growth in mining and electricity, according to the statistics ministry.
18 million tonnes: India’s current fertilizer stock, against the 39 million tonnes required for the kharif season beginning June, a shortfall the government expects to bridge through April and May, reported.
Over 3,000: Electric buses India plans to tender by June under the PM E-Bus Seva scheme, just six months after closing its largest-ever e-bus tender for over 10,000 units, taking total e-buses tendered over the past year to nearly 20,000, reported.
$7 billion: The investment International Finance Corp. (IFC) plans to deploy in India in the year ending 30 June, a 30% scale-up from current levels, focused on private sector-led job creation across city projects, e-mobility, small businesses, energy transition and agriculture.
Shipping squeeze
India’s nearly $6 billion basmati rice trade is facing mounting pressure as the West Asia conflict disrupts key shipping routes, triggering a surge in freight rates, container shortages, and supply chain bottlenecks. Exports to the region have already ground to a halt, a significant concern given that the Gulf and West Asia region accounts for 60-70% of India’s overall basmati exports, and rising freight rates are now complicating shipments to other markets as well.
In response, the ports, shipping and waterways ministry is set to convene a meeting with major shipping lines to address the escalating challenges facing exporters. Freight rates have surged sharply as the conflict chokes critical maritime corridors, and with no near-term resolution in sight, exporters fear prolonged disruption to one of India’s most valuable agricultural trade flows.
Fiscal strain
India’s fiscal deficit for April-February period of FY26 stood at ₹12.5 trillion, or 80.4% of the revised estimates (RE), according to Controller General of Accounts (CGA) data released earlier this week. This was an improvement from ₹13.4 trillion, or 85.8% of RE, a year ago.
However, a downward revision in nominal GDP has clouded the full-year outlook. The FY26 fiscal deficit is now pegged at 4.5% of GDP, slightly above the revised estimate of 4.3%.
This outlook also carries fresh risk. The Centre’s decision to cut excise duty on petrol and diesel by ₹10 per litre could dent tax collections, with economists at IDFC First Bank estimating a revenue loss of ₹1.8 trillion over 12 months. A higher export tax on fuels will partly offset the hit, but the net fiscal cost is still seen at around ₹1 trillion, or 0.3% of GDP.