US-Iran war: extended gains on Monday, April 6, amid persistent concerns over supply disruptions caused by shipping issues in the key Middle Eastern producing region, stemming from the US-Israeli war with Iran.
futures increased by $1.71, or 1.6%, reaching $110.74 per barrel. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose above $115 per barrel.
Back home, crude oil prices on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) were also trading marginally higher by 0.16% at ₹10,422 per barrel.
On Thursday, WTI climbed over 11% while Brent surged around 8% in volatile trade, marking their biggest absolute gains since 2020, after US President promised to continue the attack on Iran.
What’s behind rising crude oil prices?
In a series of sharp social media remarks, the US president warned of bringing “hell” upon the country. Tehran dismissed the latest demands, while the crucial waterway remains largely shut, with only a limited number of vessels allowed through.
According to a Bloomberg report, the ongoing war has thrown the crude market into disarray, causing an unprecedented supply shock that is now evolving into a global energy crisis. Oil and fuel prices have surged, fuelling inflation, weakening economic growth, and increasing pressure on businesses and consumers.
at 1 p.m. on Monday and also referenced a Tuesday 8 p.m. Eastern Time deadline, without clarifying its purpose. Earlier, on March 26, he had given Iran a 10-day ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a deadline that expires Monday evening.
Control over the Strait of Hormuz — a vital route linking the Persian Gulf to global markets, particularly in Asia — remains a focal point of the conflict. Tehran has asserted control over the passage, allowing only a handful of ships to pass, including a French container vessel, a Japanese-owned tanker, and ships from Malaysia and Pakistan.
On Saturday, Iran announced that Iraq would be exempt from the restrictions in the strait, which could lead to an increase in oil shipments. However, an Iraqi official urged caution, noting that exports would depend on whether shipping firms are prepared to take the risk of navigating the key trade route.
Crude oil price: Near-term outlook
According to Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodity and Currency Research, Kotak Securities, the deep backwardation in WTI and Brent futures signals acute supply stress, with nearly 10% of global crude offline and inventories draining fast.
Banerjee explained that while conflicting ceasefire talks add uncertainty, even if flows start normalising by late April, full restoration will take two to three months. For now, Brent remains elevated, with $95–100 acting as a key support zone and $120 as a major resistance, he added.
Meanwhile, Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said that NYMEX Crude Oil is trading near the $110–$112 zone after a strong rally, indicating sustained bullish momentum on higher timeframes. The structure continues to show higher highs and higher lows, supported by consistent buying interest.
“Immediate resistance is placed at $115–$118. A breakout above this zone can push prices toward $120–$125 in the coming weeks. On the downside, $105–$102 acts as immediate support, while $100–$97 remains a strong base where buying interest is likely to re-emerge. Overall, the trend remains bullish, and the current phase indicates continuation unless key supports are broken,” he added.
(With inputs from agencies)
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