The Indian stock market witnessed heightened volatility on Monday amid weak global cues, as escalating US-Iran war in the Middle East and a surge in crude oil prices continued to weigh on investor sentiment.
The benchmark indices staged a recovery from early losses and traded higher by over half a percent. The Sensex rose 0.67% to 73,811, while the Nifty 50 advanced 0.73% to 22,880. The Bank Nifty outperformed the frontliers, gaining 1.40% to 52,268.
The managed to break above the key resistance level of 22,800. Analysts suggest that the next critical level to watch is the 23,000 mark.
However, the broader trend remains under pressure. The Nifty 50 has declined over 6% over the past month and is down more than 12% on a year-to-date (YTD) basis. The index has largely traded within the 22,000 – 23,800 range in recent weeks.
According to Amit Goel, Chief Global Strategist at PACE 360, the likelihood of the 50-stock index breaching the 22,000 level appears limited, given the significant build-up of put writing at the 22,500 and 22,000 strike levels.
He added that a decisive breakout in the Nifty 50 would likely require the Bank Nifty to close above the 56,000 level.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, noted that concerns persist as each market rebound continues to face resistance.
“The 22,800 zone is emerging as an immediate supply area, while 23,000 remains a critical hurdle for any meaningful recovery. Unless the index sustains a strong close above 23,000, the upside is likely to remain limited and prone to selling pressure,” he said.
On the downside, Ponmudi highlighted 22,400 as a crucial support level. “A breach below this could accelerate declines toward the 22,300–22,200 zone,” he added.
From a structural standpoint, the market continues to exhibit weakness, with rallies being sold into rather than attracting sustained buying interest.
Bank Nifty Outlook
The Bank Nifty’s trend remains largely unchanged, with upward moves facing resistance and giving way to declines. The 51,800–52,000 range has emerged as a strong resistance zone, capping gains and pushing the index back toward the 51,100 level.
“A decisive break below 51,000 could intensify selling pressure, dragging the index toward 50,700–50,600 levels, and potentially to 50,000 if weakness persists,” Ponmudi said.
He added that only a sustained breakout above the resistance zone can alter the current market structure. Until then, intermittent recoveries are likely to remain vulnerable, with sentiment staying cautious to mildly bearish.
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