Comex gold edged higher to around $4,700 per ounce on Tuesday, gaining roughly $20 in the session, while MCX gold climbed approximately ₹1,200 to trade near ₹1,51,000 — buoyed by tentative signals of US-Iran diplomatic engagement and a modest pullback in crude oil prices.
However, analysts caution that the bounce reflects short covering rather than a structural shift in sentiment. “The bounce is largely driven by short covering and relief in risk sentiment, as initial diplomatic developments reduced immediate panic. However, the situation remains uncertain, with no clarity on Strait of Hormuz reopening, keeping underlying risks intact and inflation concerns elevated,” said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities. He pegs support for MCX gold near ₹1,49,000 and resistance around ₹1,53,500.
The daily report from Axis Direct dated April 7 places MCX gold’s CMP at ₹1,49,981, up 1.85 per cent, with a short-term price regime described as neutral and trend score at 2 (Mild Bullish). The implied Comex range for the day stands at $4,594–$4,693, with the critical pattern levels at ₹1,52,000 on the upside and ₹1,48,000 on the downside.
Despite the daily uptick, the weekly outlook from Axis Securities dated April 6 remains guarded. Prices failed to settle above the 9-period EMA on the weekly chart, with the RSI below 60 — indicating the current upside momentum lacks conviction. The weekly note recommends selling MCX gold around ₹1,53,000 with a stop-loss above ₹1,55,000 and targets of ₹1,50,000 and ₹1,48,000.
Silver tracked a softer trajectory. MCX silver was trading around ₹2,33,379, up 2.38 per cent on the day per the April 7 daily note, but the Comex implied range of $71.21–$74.71 reflects continued volatility. The trend score sits at 0 (Neutral), with the short-term regime classified as neutral and no discernible technical pattern. Weekly analysis flags the formation of lower highs — a sign that rallies are being used as selling opportunities — with a supply zone at ₹2,55,000 capping upside ambitions.
Crude oil remains the dominant market mover. MCX crude was trading at ₹10,588, surging 12.7 per cent from prior session levels, with today’s implied Nymex range at $110.48–$116.46. WTI futures hovered near $112–$115. The short-term regime for crude is classified as bullish, with the Axis daily report citing supply disruption concerns as the primary price driver. The critical upside level is ₹10,800, with support seen at ₹9,900.
The broader backdrop remains shaped by geopolitical risk. Nymex crude settled near $112 last week — a near four-year high — as traders priced in continued uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz. Stronger-than-expected US Non-Farm Payroll data last Friday added pressure on precious metals through profit booking. This week, FOMC minutes, Core PCE data, and Final GDP figures are likely to set the tone for gold and broader commodity markets.