Target: ₹365
CMP: ₹234.25
The recent West Asia crisis has affected JSW Infrastructure, as its Fujairah liquid storage tankage was hit by drone attacks. However, we expect its FY26 EBITDA guidance of ₹2,600 crore to be largely met despite disruptions at Fujairah on the back of a strong performance for group-linked cargo and continuing scale-up in the logistic business.
Furthermore, with potential plan for a primary-raise announced by the company to meet minimum public shareholding norms, we expect leverage to remain significantly below 2.5x (net debt/EBITDA) over FY26-28E, thereby supporting the company’s growth capex plan. We are trimming FY27-28 estimates building in the fallout from West Asia.
We forecast Q4FY26 EBITDA would be ₹743 crore despite some impact from the West Asia crisis. There may be some disruptions in steel-grade limestone imports from the region in our view. That said, these factors may be offset by strong group cargo performance (led by rising steel prices and production), improved outlook for the coastal coal movement and logistical (Navkar) ramp-up.
We expect strong growth till FY30E (EBITDA exceeding ₹8,000 crore) as the recently-commissioned capacities and logistics ramp-up and further port capacities at Keni (targeting Vijayanagar Steel Plant cargo) and Oman come on stream. Despite minimal EBITDA revisions, our DCF-based TP is revised down to ₹365 (from ₹400), also factoring in rising G-Sec yields; maintain BUY.