The Reserve Bank of India is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its policy decision at 10 am on Wednesday, as it assesses the impact of recent global developments, including the Iran-US ceasefire.
The repo rate currently stands at 5.25%, unchanged since December 2025, when the central bank last cut rates.
, which has led to a sharp fall in prices, is expected to play a key role in shaping the ’s stance. Lower oil prices ease pressure on inflation and the overall economy, giving the central bank more room to maintain stability.
The recent drop in crude oil prices below $100 per barrel has reduced one of the biggest risks for India, which imports most of its oil.
Lower oil prices help control inflation and reduce pressure on the rupee. This may allow the RBI to stay on hold rather than take any immediate action.
Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited, said, “RBI, aided by the crash in crude, will opt for a hold in rates today. The policy stance will continue to be neutral.”
He added, “The upside risk to inflation and the downside risk to growth can now be managed well. Rupee will strengthen and this may even force the FPIs to turn buyers; at least they will have to cease the sustained selling, which will become irrational in the present context.”
According to YES BANK, the economic situation has changed significantly since the last policy in February.
“A huge transition in India’s macro narrative has occurred between the February policy to now. In February, MPC members expressed confidence in growth while no risk was seen from inflation,” the report said.
It added that the West Asia conflict had pushed oil prices higher and weakened the rupee, affecting many parts of the economy.
“The fear is for growth to slow in FY27 due to higher oil prices and supply chain disruptions, that could lead to problems for domestic manufacturing,” the report noted.
YES BANK also pointed out that supply chain issues have created sector-specific problems that cannot be solved by monetary policy alone.
“There are sector specific problems out of supply chain disruptions, that monetary policy alone cannot address,” it said.
On inflation, the report estimated an increase of 35-50 bps from its base case of about 4%, which could push headline CPI to 4.5-4.8%.
“Overall, April policy should be status-quo, and the tone is likely to be cautious,” the report added.
The RBI’s decision is also important for sectors such as housing, where borrowing costs directly impact demand.
Atul Monga, CEO and Co-Founder of BASIC Home Loan, said, “With growth remaining resilient and inflation showing signs of moderation, we expect the RBI to maintain the status quo on policy rates as they examine the global crisis and liquidity conditions on the domestic front.”
He added that stable rates could support demand in the housing market.
“Recent rate stability is beginning to offer some relief, and a continued pause or slight change in policy stance can help revive the housing demand and improve borrower sentiment,” he said.
Monga also said that better liquidity and stable interest rates can improve credit access and support the housing ecosystem.
While the ceasefire has eased some global pressure, the RBI is likely to remain cautious.
The central bank will closely watch inflation, growth and global risks before taking any further steps.
Markets will also focus on the RBI’s updated growth and inflation forecasts, which will give a clearer picture of the road ahead for the economy.
For now, the fall in crude prices has provided some relief, but the RBI is expected to stay steady and avoid any major policy changes.