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Analysts are also watching for signs of asset-quality pressure, which could surface over the next two quarters due to second-order effects of the Iran war, which has hurt segments such as unsecured loans and sectors like restaurants and tile-making companies.
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IIFL Capital analysts Viral Shah, Shalin Kapadia and Priyanshu Ahuja said they expect an end to the cost of funds reduction cycle and peaking of NIMs for NBFCs with the hardening of G-sec yields.
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“NIM outcomes are expected to be divergent: 5-10 basis points quarter-on-quarter (bps qoq) decline for , , and about a 20 to 30 bps qoq decline for Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services and L&T Finance. Flattish for HDB, Five Star and 5 to 10 bps expansion for Finance, ,” IIFL Capital said in a preview note. One basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
Pre result business updates show that NBFCs have had a solid March quarter. reported a 22% year on year in assets under management (AUM) to ₹5.10 lakh crore, from ₹4.17 lakh crore a year ago. Sequentially, AUM increased by approximately ₹25,500 crore in the March quarter.
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L&T Finance also reported a strong growth in loan book with retail loans at ₹1.19 lakh crore as of March 2026, up 26% year-on-year from ₹95,180 crore ayear ago.
Retail disbursements for the quarter were at about ₹24,080 crore, a growth of around 62% year-on-year compared with ₹14,899 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year.
Analysts said the uncertainties of the Iran war had a negligible impact on NBFCs’ growth during the quarter as it was only at the fag end that stress built up. However, all eyes will be on the commentary by these lenders on growth, and cost of funds amid rising market rates.
“Going forward cost of funds are likely to increase and the focus would be on how asset quality shapes up in the next two quarters due to the impact of war on inflation and second order effects on consumption for example in the restaurant business. One has to keep a watch on asset quality especially on consumption focussed NBFCs and card companies like ,” said Kaitav Shah, analyst at Anand Rathi.
Consumption focussed NBFCs like SBI Card have been showing an improving asset quality trend this year on the back of tighter underwriting. However, any effect on inflation, supply shocks or job losses due to the ongoing West Asia conflict could impact these companies.
SBI Card’s gross NPAs had improved to 2.86% of gross advances as of December 31, 2025, down from 3.24% a year ago.
Analysts said commentary on what NBFCs expect in the next two quarters will be a key monitorable.
“More than the growth this quarter commentary will be very important because NBFCs could face challenges from impact on sectors hit by war particularly for lending to SMEs. Cost of funds for NBFcs will also be a challenge as market borrowing becomes expensive. Among NBFCs gold loan NBFCs are likely to continue to do well,” said Manish Ostwal, fund manager, Nirmal Bang PMS.
IIFL Capital analysts expect asset quality trends to improve on the back of improving trends in consumer unsecured loans, micro finance and some vehicle finance loans, though delinquencies remain elevated in pockets of MSME (micro-LAP, mid-ticket unsecured).
“Consequently, we expect credit costs to improve up to 50 bps qoq for most NBFCs under our coverage save for a 20 bps qoq increase for Five Star (micro-LAP) and (normalisation). However, there may be risk of NBFCs creating management overlays/buffers to account for the risks from the Middle East conflict,” IIFL Capital said.
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