Indian markets are likely to see weak opening as the peace talks with Iran led by US vice-president JD Vance failed. Gift Nifty at 23,770 (7.25 am IST) indicates a gap down of opening of 300-350 points for Nifty. Despite the talks collapsed, Gift Nifty is not showing sharp weakness as feared out, said a Chennai-based market veteran. However, one has to brace for volatility he cautioned and advise day-trading traders to remain on the sidelines still clarity emerges.
According to Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, the earlier relief from the temporary US–Iran ceasefire has reversed, as reports indicate that the US has moved to restrict access through the Strait of Hormuz following failed negotiations. “This development is critical, as the route carries a significant portion of global oil supply. Crude oil prices, which had corrected from above $110 to the $94–100 range, have now surged back above $105, reintroducing inflationary and macro concerns,” he cautioned.
FPI selling
After the record Rs 1,22,182 crore selling in March FPIs continued selling in April, too. Up to 11th April total FPI selling through the exchanges stand at Rs 48,905 crores taking the total FPI selling for 2026, till now, to Rs 1,90,046 crore.
The sharp correction in the market after the war began has made the valuations fair; but not compelling buys, yet, said Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Ltd.
The surge in equity mutual flows to Rs 40,450 crore and monthly SIP inflows to Rs 32,087 crore in March bode well for the market. With such strong mutual fund flows into the market, FPI selling will not impact the market significantly, he further said.
For India, the implications are immediate and significant, he said adding that With over 85% of crude oil imports dependent on this route, rising oil prices could pressure the current account deficit, weaken the rupee, and elevate inflation expectations. “The earlier rally in Indian equities where Nifty and Sensex gained nearly 6% last week was largely driven by easing crude and improved global sentiment. That tailwind is now at risk,”
“Markets are likely to shift back into a risk-off mode,” he feared.
Meanwhile global stocks are relatively stable with Nikkei and Korea’s Kospi are down less than a per cent in early deal on Monday.
Echoing similar views, Hariprasad K, SEBI-registered Research Analyst and Founder, Livelong Wealth, said “For India, higher oil prices remain a critical risk, given its import dependency, as it directly feeds into inflation, currency pressure, and margin stress across sectors.
Today’s session is likely to be driven by global risk sentiment, expiry dynamics, and stock-specific triggers. While the broader trend remains supported by recent momentum, the breakdown in geopolitical stability introduces a layer of uncertainty that could keep markets volatile, reactive, and highly sensitive to incoming news flow, he further said.
Despite the geopolitical overhang, domestic triggers remain equally important. The Q4 earnings season gathers pace this week, and the market’s focus is clearly shifting from headline numbers to forward guidance. Management commentary on demand visibility, margin sustainability, and structural themes such as AI-led disruption will be critical in shaping sectoral trends. Banking and financials, led by heavyweights such as HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, will remain central to index direction, while IT stocks like Wipro could continue to face pressure amid global demand uncertainties, said Hariprasad.
According to VK Vijayakumar, FPIs turning buyers in the market will depend on the situation in West Asia and crude prices. If there is de-escalation in the conflict and crude declines significantly, India’s macros will not be impacted materially. If the conflict prolongs India’s macros will be impacted. It would be unrealistic expect FPIs to turn buyers in such a scenario.”