The El Niño phenomenon could result in one of the driest monsoons in India in at least eight years.
Private forecaster Skymet has predicted: the rainfall is likely to be 94% of the long-period average (LPA), or below-normal. While the predictions are in line with broader expectations of low rainfall, Skymet is known for giving more conservative predictions than the official India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Both agencies fail to predict the intensity of rainfall accurately more often than not, but Skymet’s track record has worsened in recent years. Accurate monsoon prediction is crucial for making informed decisions about agricultural activities and water resource management in the country.
The 2026 prediction
Skymet has predicted rainfall at 94% of the LPA. This puts rainfall slightly below the normal rainfall range of 96-104%.
The last time India faced such a situation was in 2023—another El Niño year—when rainfall was 94.6 of the LPA. The situation was worse in 2018 when rainfall was only 90.6% of the LPA.
However, the more concerning aspect lies beyond the headline forecast. Skymet has assigned a 40% chance of below-normal rainfall and a 30% chance of deficient rainfall or a drought-like condition. Put together, there is a 70% chance that rainfall conditions will be poor, worse than the 60% probability seen in 2023.
If these predictions materialize, the economic consequences could be significant, particularly amid ongoing disruptions from the West Asia war that are already causing fertilizer shortages and price pressures.
India had faced a somewhat similar situation in 2023 when the disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine war, along with El Niño effects, had caused food shortages and price spikes around the world. This prompted the Indian government to impose export restrictions or bans on wheat, rice, and sugar to manage domestic supply and curb prices. Inflation that year had shot up to 6.6% from 5.5% the previous year.
Prediction vs reality
India’s monsoon has historically been difficult to forecast accurately. Forecasters have missed actual rainfall by more than the acceptable error margin (±5 percentage points) at least 60% of the time.
The two main forecasters give somewhat similar predictions; however, Skymet has been more conservative in its forecast. In seven of the last 12 years, Skymet has predicted lower rainfall than the IMD, with the forecast being lower by 2-4 percentage points in the past three years and one percentage point lower in the remaining three years.
While Skymet’s predictions point to a more cautious approach, its track record has been worse than the IMD more consistently in recent years, which was not always the case. A Mint analysis of data from 2013 shows that while both Skymet and the IMD have missed accurate predictions, the private forecaster used to be closer to actual rainfall than the IMD in 2013 and 2014. This helped bolster Skymet’s reputation in weather forecasting.
However, it missed the mark by a large margin in 2015 (15.7 percentage points as against just 6.7 pps by the IMD), raising questions about its methodology. While a similar gap in Skymet and IMD predictions has not happened again, its track record has been slightly worse than the IMD in recent years (2018-2025), with its prediction 1-4 percentage points farther from actuals compared to the IMD in most years.
Though there has been one instance when the two forecasters have come up with similar predictions: 2019. In this case, the predictions by both were far off the mark. As against their projection of normal rainfall (96% of LPA), it turned out to be 110%, falling in the category of excess and above-normal rainfall.
Deep reliance
India’s dependence on the monsoon is structural and profound.
Monsoon rainfall accounts for 75–80% of the country’s annual precipitation, serving as a lifeline for agriculture, economic activity and water security. About half of India’s net sown area is rainfed and accounts for 40% of the total food production. A robust agricultural activity is important as it employs nearly 40% of India’s workforce and contributes around 20% to India’s economic activity. Poor rainfall has a direct bearing on economic activity.
A Mint analysis of agricultural gross value added (GVA) since 2001 shows a strong relation between rainfall and agricultural activity. In the six years since 2001, when rainfall fell below 90% of LPA, farm GVA either contracted or barely grew.
The drought years of 2002 and 2009 saw farm output shrink by 6.6% and 0.9%, respectively. In 2014 and 2015, two consecutive drought years, agriculture GVA was muted, with -0.2% and 0.7% growth, respectively. In 2023, when rainfall was below normal, agricultural GVA grew 2.6%, compared to 4.0-6.3% growth recorded in the previous four years.
After two years of above-normal rainfall, the El Niño condition is pointing towards a low rainfall situation this year. While forecasters have not been very accurate in predicting rainfall intensity, the direction of their forecast could still help in the better planning of agricultural activity and water management in the country.
However, if rainfall prediction goes wrong by a large margin, as seen in several years, it could also lead to wrong planning, especially at a time when climate change is already altering the systemic weather patterns in the country.