If you’ve ever felt tempted to put your money into whatever delivered the best returns last year, you’re not alone. It’s a common instinct. But long-term data suggests that this strategy may not work as well as it seems.
A recent analysis posted by Animesh Hardia, Wealth Advisor and Quant Researcher, on LinkedIn, highlights just , even over extended periods.
The numbers tell an interesting story.
In 2025, gold delivered a strong 72% return, far ahead of Indian equities, which managed just 7%. But rewind a year, and the picture looks completely different. In 2024, US equities led with 23%, while in 2023, Indian equities topped the chart with 26%.
Go further back, and the pattern continues to shift. Gold led in 2022 with 14%, while Indian equities dominated 2021 with a sharp 30% return. As Hardia puts it, “No single asset has led for more than three consecutive years.”
The study tracked 18 years of calendar-year returns across five major asset classes—Indian equities, gold, debt, real estate and US equities. Gold topped the charts in seven of those 18 years, while Indian equities led in six. US equities came out on top in three years.
But the story doesn’t end there. “Gold was also the worst performer in 5 years. Indian equity was worst in 5. Debt in 5,” Hardia said.
In other words, the same asset that leads one year can easily fall to the bottom in another.
Short-term success can sometimes be misleading.
For instance, gold delivered a strong 31% return in 2011. But investors who rushed in after that rally saw it fall by 14% just two years later in 2013. A similar pattern played out in equities. Indian markets surged by 89% in 2009, only to drop 27% within the next two years.
Hardia explained, “Each asset responds to a different set of forces—earnings, interest rates, geopolitics, currency.”
That means no single investment stays ahead for long.
The temptation to invest in last year’s top performer is strong. After all, recent returns are easy to see and often feel reassuring. But the data suggests otherwise. “If most of your money sits in whatever did well last year, 18 years of data isn’t on your side,” Hardia said.
This is because markets move in cycles. What works today may not work tomorrow.
In other words, the findings reinforce a simple but important idea, i.e., there is no permanent winner in investing. Instead of trying to guess which asset will perform best next, spreading investments across different asset classes may offer a more stable path.
Over time, this approach can help balance out the highs and lows that come with market cycles. Because in investing, it’s not just about catching the next big winner—it’s about staying steady when the winners keep changing.