Q4 results 2026 to US-Iran war: Top five triggers that may dictate the Indian stock market this week

Indian stock market: The Indian stock market saw broad-based buying interest on Friday, April 17, enabling the benchmark indices — Sensex and Nifty 50 — to post gains for the second straight week.

The Sensex climbed 505 points, or 0.65%, to close at 78,493.54, while the Nifty 50 advanced 157 points, also up 0.65%, to settle at 24,353.55. Meanwhile, mid- and small-cap stocks outperformed the broader market.

Stock Market Outlook next week

Nifty 50

According to Ponmudi R, CEO – Enrich Money, a SEBI – registered online trading and wealth tech firm, markets in the coming week are likely to remain highly news-driven, though with a positive bias.

“Investor attention will be focused on the trajectory of US–Iran negotiations, with greater emphasis on signs of a durable resolution rather than short-term headlines, given the implications for global risk assets, capital flows and crude oil prices. Continued stability or further moderation in crude prices could provide a meaningful tailwind for equities and support the broader macro outlook,” he said.

He further noted that overall sentiment has improved, the sustainability of the upmove will depend on continued follow-through buying and stability in external conditions. Any adverse geopolitical developments or a sharp rebound in oil prices could quickly reintroduce volatility.

Top 5 triggers for the Indian stock market

1] Q4 results 2026

The fourth quarter results have begun in a full swing as HCL Technologies, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, Havells, IndusInd Bank, M&M Finance, and Shriram Finance—are scheduled to announce their results in the coming week.



On Monday, the market participants will initially react to results from banking heavyweights such as HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank.

“The Q4 earnings season will take centre stage, driving stock-specific movements across sectors. Management commentary and earnings surprises—particularly from heavyweight companies—are likely to play a key role in shaping index direction,” Ponmudi said.

2] US-Iran war

The US-Iran peace deal appears to be under strain once again, as tensions resurface between the two sides. Iran has raised concerns over the slow progress of negotiations, even as Donald Trump continues to project optimism. Tehran has also reiterated that Washington is pushing what it considers to be excessive demands. These developments come amid renewed uncertainty surrounding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, Iran has reversed its earlier move to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, citing the ongoing US blockade. According to reports, the next round of US-Iran negotiations is scheduled to be held in Pakistan on Monday.

3] Crude oil prices

Global markets reacted positively on Saturday, with oil prices tumbling and equity indices surging after a US-Iran ceasefire eased fears around energy supply disruptions. Data showed a steep pullback in commodities, while major stock benchmarks posted strong gains.

Brent crude dropped sharply by 7.57% to close at $91.87 per barrel, down from its earlier level of $99.39. During the session, it touched a low of $86.08, further distancing itself from its 52-week peak of $114.81.

Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined 9.63%, slipping $9.12 to settle at $85.57. In contrast, gold prices edged higher, rising 0.94% to $4,833.56.

“The upcoming week will be crucial, with both global and domestic developments likely to guide market direction. Geopolitical developments in the US–Iran conflict will remain a key monitorable, given their direct impact on crude oil prices and global risk sentiment,” said Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking.

4] Gold and silver prices

Gold prices continued their upward momentum on Friday, buoyed by a softer dollar and remarks from Iran’s foreign minister indicating that the Strait of Hormuz remains accessible during the ceasefire. This development pressured oil prices and helped ease inflation worries.

Spot gold climbed 1.5% to $4,861.32 per ounce as of 1:58 p.m. ET (1758 GMT), taking its weekly gains to over 2%. Meanwhile, US gold futures also advanced 1.5%, settling at $4,879.60.

Spot silver surged 4.2% to $81.71 per ounce and has risen more than 7% so far this week.

“Precious metals have begun to stabilise, showing early signs of recovery. While safe-haven demand has moderated, it remains underpinned by lingering geopolitical uncertainty. Gold and silver are attracting selective buying interest at lower levels, suggesting improving sentiment and a more favourable risk-reward profile near key support zones,” said Ponmudi.

5] FII outflows

Foreign investors have extended their selling streak in India’s debt market in April, with outflows exceeding $1 billion so far this month. The sustained selling is being driven by geopolitical tensions, currency volatility, elevated hedging costs, global yield movements, and domestic macroeconomic concerns.

Since April 1, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have offloaded over $1.23 billion worth of Indian debt, putting them on course for their sharpest monthly selloff since April 2025. In comparison, FIIs had sold more than $977 million in debt during March.

“In anticipation of stability in the rupee FPIs turned buyers, though marginally, in the last three trading days. Crash in Brent crude to around $90 on news of opening of the Hormuz Strait will further aid the rupee in the near-term.

This may create an environment where FPIs may turn buyers in India. If along with the opening of the Hormuz Strait the conflict in West Asia also come to an end, the prospects for the Indian economy will again be restored to the pre-war levels.

The strong flows into mutual funds and resilience in SIP inflows will help support the market,” said V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.

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