Mukesh Ambani-owned Reliance Industries is expected to report weak earnings in the fourth quarter of FY26 (Q4 FY26), weighed down by disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz that pushed up freight and gas costs and weak petchem spreads, partly offset by stronger refining cracks amid elevated crude prices.
On a consolidated basis, the company’s Q4 profit is seen around 1.5 per cent down on weakness in its core oil-to-chemicals business, offset to some extent by steady growth in digital and retail segments.
An average of estimates from analysts have pegged net profit at a little over ₹19,000 crore, and revenue from operations at ₹2.8 lakh crore, up 7.7 per cent on year. Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation is seen up 4.9 per cent at ₹46,000 crore.
RIL will be announcing its Q4 and FY26 results on Friday.
Oil-to-chemicals drag
Revenue may slip sequentially as softer refining margins and subdued petrochemical spreads weigh on the energy portfolio.
The oil-to-chemicals segment is seen as the main drag, with benchmark refining margins easing during the quarter amid volatile crude prices and patchy global demand. Petrochemical profitability is also likely to remain under pressure, reflecting weak downstream demand and oversupply in key product chains.
Nuvama Research said it expected O2C EBITDA to fall 4 per cent on year and 12 per cent sequentially, despite a sharp rise in Singapore gross refining margin.
Consumer biz support
By contrast, the consumer-facing businesses are expected to provide support. Reliance Jio is likely to have sustained earnings growth on higher average revenue per user and continued subscriber additions.
Nuvama said it expected Reliance Jio’s EBITDA to surge 16 per cent on year and 3 per cent sequentially on higher ARPU (average revenue per user), which is seen up 4 per cent on year. Prabhudas Lilladher pegged ARPU in the quarter at ₹215.8 with steady subscriber additions.
Reliance Retail is expected to see some moderation with revenue growing in mid-single digit, said Equirus in its preview note.
The retail EBITDA is seen to be under pressure at ₹6,870 crore with a growth of 5.6 per cent on year, said PL.
Key monitorables for analysts will be O2C margins, retail revenue growth, timeline for Jio’s IPO, subscriber growth, price hikes in telecom and capital expenditure.