Stock markets are likely to open lower on Thursday, as rising crude oil prices and weak global cues weigh on investor sentiment. , raising concerns about inflation and economic growth.
Early indicators suggest a weak start. GIFT Nifty futures were trading at 24,138 as of 8:30 am, pointing to a gap-down opening for the Nifty 50, which had closed at 24,378.1 in the previous session.
Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking Private Limited, said markets are expected to open weak.
“Indian equity markets are expected to open on a weak to negative note, tracking sharp weakness in GIFT Nifty and cautious global cues. GIFT Nifty is currently trading around 24,200, down by nearly 160 points, indicating a gap-down start,” he said.
The main trigger for the weak opening is the sharp rise in oil prices. Brent crude has climbed to around $102 per barrel, extending gains for the fourth straight session.
The rise comes after seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil supply. At the same time, there are no clear signs of peace talks restarting, which has kept markets on edge.
as the country imports most of its oil and gas needs. A prolonged rise in prices can push up inflation and affect demand across the economy.
Adding to the pressure, global brokerage firm HSBC has downgraded Indian equities to “underweight” from “neutral”. The firm cited India’s dependence on imported energy and the possible impact of high oil prices on inflation and growth.
This has added to cautious sentiment among investors, especially at a time when global markets are already facing uncertainty.
Foreign investors have also turned cautious. Provisional data shows that foreign institutional investors sold shares worth Rs 2,078.36 crore on Wednesday. This marks their second straight day of selling after they were buyers in the previous four sessions.
Domestic institutional investors also booked profits, adding to the selling pressure in the market.
He added that the fall reflects profit booking after the recent rally, continued foreign institutional selling, and cautious sentiment due to ongoing geopolitical developments and earnings-related uncertainty.
In the previous trading session, markets saw volatility and ended lower after failing to hold higher levels. The Nifty slipped below the 24,400 mark during the day.
Banking and financial stocks saw selling pressure after a strong rally in recent sessions. IT stocks also remained weak due to global concerns.
However, defensive sectors such as FMCG and energy showed some stability. Broader markets were relatively more stable compared to large-cap stocks.
Banking and financial stocks may remain under pressure due to profit booking and high institutional ownership. IT stocks could continue to see weakness due to global uncertainty.
On the other hand, FMCG and energy stocks may provide some support as investors look for safer options.
Investors will also react to earnings from key companies.
SBI Life Insurance reported a slight fall in net profit for the January-March quarter, mainly due to a sharp rise in operating expenses.
Retailer Trent posted a 26% jump in quarterly profit, helped by higher demand. The company has also announced its first bonus share issue and plans to raise up to Rs 25 billion.
According to Aakash Shah, the Nifty is facing resistance in the 24,400–24,500 range, where selling has been seen.
Immediate support is placed between 24,100 and 24,000. If the index falls below this level, further downside or range-bound movement may be seen.
For Bank Nifty, resistance is seen near 57,000–57,200, while support is around 56,200–56,000.
Market volatility is also increasing. India VIX, which measures market fear, is trading around 18.30, up by over 4%. This shows growing caution among investors due to global uncertainty and selling by institutions.
The overall setup suggests a weak opening followed by a range-bound to slightly negative session.
Aakash Shah said, “The overall market setup suggests a gap-down opening followed by a range-bound to mildly negative trading session.”
He added that while the broader trend remains positive, the market may see short-term consolidation unless fresh positive triggers emerge.
With above $100, rising global tensions, and continued selling by foreign investors, markets may remain under pressure in the near term.