The opened 11 paise weaker at 94.22 against the US dollar on Friday, April 24, as a sustained rally in oil prices renewed pressure on the currency after a brief phase of stability.
The domestic currency has been on a downward trend throughout the week, exhibiting minimal signs of recovery. It has dropped approximately 1.3% to date and is about two major figures below its recent peak of 92.50, underscoring the quick return of selling pressure following a brief relief rally.
Although the steep drop has occurred, the decline has been somewhat moderated. Traders have observed that the is actively intervening in the foreign exchange market, which is helping to prevent a more significant decline in the rupee.
The ongoing strain on the rupee this week can be primarily attributed to oil prices, according to experts. has increased by almost 18%, reaching approximately $106 per barrel, and briefly exceeded $107 on Thursday for the first time in a fortnight.
The increase shows no signs of slowing down, as concerns about a potential military escalation in the Middle East keep the risk premium elevated.
Iran has released footage depicting commandos boarding a cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, and reports indicating that Tehran’s air defenses have engaged “hostile targets” have further contributed to market anxiety.
Domestic economic indicators are providing some backing for the rupee, despite ongoing global challenges. The Manufacturing PMI has risen to 55.9, while the Services PMI is at 57.9, reflecting steady growth in the economy and strong demand conditions, according to experts.
Furthermore, the real effective exchange rate (REER) is at 94.1, indicating that the rupee is still undervalued, which allows for the possibility of gradual appreciation in the future. On the front of capital flows, net FDI has become positive at $4.6 billion in February after nearly six months of outflows, indicating a resurgence in investor confidence.
As per experts, these domestic strengths offer support to the currency and help reduce potential downsides. Nevertheless, they warn that despite favorable macro indicators and enhanced capital flows, the rupee’s short-term trajectory will largely be influenced by external factors like oil prices, global risk appetite, and the strength of the dollar.
Rupee Outlook
Amit Pabari, MD, Research Team, CR Forex Advisors, said, technically, the break above 94.00 confirms an underlying depreciation bias. However, rather than extending sharply, the rupee is likely to pause and consolidate.
“A near-term range of 93.50 to 94.50 is expected over the next 9–10 days, before the broader trend takes clearer direction based on global developments,” added Pabari.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.