Indian stocks are expected to open on a flattish note on Wednesday, the beginning of the new monthly (July) series on the NSE. Analysts expect the market to remain volatile amid a weakening rupee, unabated selling by FPIs and a sharp rise in crude oil prices.
Meanwhile, IIP growth has eased to 4.8 per cent in Q4 FY2026 from 5.3 per cent in Q3 FY2026, entirely on the back of slower growth in manufacturing output, even as the performance of the electricity and mining sectors has improved between these quarters.
Hariprasad K, SEBI-registered Research Analyst and Founder, Livelong Wealth, said Indian markets are poised to open on a constructive note, with Gift Nifty indicating a positive start around the 24,110 mark. The signal suggests early resilience in domestic equities, even as global cues remain mixed and somewhat fragile.
Gift Nifty at 24,090 signals a flattish opening.
Overnight, U.S. markets witnessed a pullback, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closing lower after retreating from recent record highs. The decline was largely led by weakness in the technology space, following concerns around growth expectations in the AI segment. This has introduced a layer of caution in global risk sentiment, particularly for tech-heavy indices.
Asian markets are reflecting this uncertainty with a mixed opening.
“Investors are balancing the impact of softer U.S. cues with fresh developments in the energy space. Notably, the decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to see the exit of the United Arab Emirates from May 1 adds a new dimension to the global oil supply outlook. Such shifts within major producer alliances could influence crude price stability in the near term, keeping energy markets in focus,” he added.
Earnings will remain the key driver for stock-specific action. The spotlight is firmly on Bajaj Finance, widely seen as a critical domestic trigger for today’s session. A strong performance could help offset global concerns and support financials. Other important results include Federal Bank, Adani Power, and Vedanta Limited, which are expected to drive sector-specific momentum.
According to Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, a SEBI-registered online trading and wealth-tech firm, Indian equity markets are likely to remain volatile due to elevated crude prices and persistent geopolitical tensions. Brent crude remains firm in the $110–113 per barrel range, reflecting ongoing disruptions to supply and reinforcing inflation concerns.
“The U.S.–Iran conflict shows little sign of resolution, with negotiations making limited progress. Continued disruption around the Strait of Hormuz is keeping the risk premium in global markets elevated, leaving investors wary of fresh supply shocks and their broader economic impact,” he cautioned.
Global equities are trading on a mixed to weaker footing, with higher energy costs and geopolitical risks dampening risk appetite. Asian markets are also reflecting a cautious bias, as oil price volatility and uncertainty around diplomatic developments keep participants on edge.
On the flows front, foreign institutional investors remain net sellers amid global risk aversion, while domestic institutional investors continue to offer some support, helping to cushion downside moves.
“Overall, sentiment remains fragile and highly sensitive to news flow. Elevated crude prices, unresolved geopolitical tensions, currency pressures and persistent foreign outflows are likely to keep markets under pressure, with near-term direction hinging on oil price trends and any meaningful progress in US–Iran negotiations,” said Ponmudi.
Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA Ltd, said: “While IIP growth expectedly eased in March 2026 relative to February 2026, touching a 5-month low of 4.1 per cent, it printed significantly higher than ICRA’s expectations (+1.5 per cent) for the month. The surprise was led by the manufacturing and mining sectors, which grew by a healthy 4.3 per cent and 5.5 per cent, respectively, in the month. The stronger-than-expected IIP growth performance contrasts with the 0.4 per cent contraction seen in core output, suggesting that the non-core portion of industrial output rose at a robust 7.8 per cent in the month, shrugging off the expected adverse impact of the onset of the West Asia crisis.”