Vedanta Demerger: Vedanta’s much-anticipated is set to go through tomorrow, 30 April, as the metal and mining major will reflect ex-spun off pricing.
While Vedanta’s demerger record date was set as 1 May, the special discovery session in the Anil Agarwal-led company will take place a day ago, as both BSE and NSE are shut on Friday for Maharashtra Day.
Thus, today was the last day to purchase Vedanta shares to enjoy demerger benefits. Vedanta will separate four of its businesses, which will be listed as separate entities. Each shareholder will get 1:1 for each demerged entity
What could be Vedanta share price after demerger?
Vedanta will have a price discovery session from 9:15 to 9:45 am tomorrow, 30 April, and normal trading will start from 10:00 AM at the ex-demerged price.
“The Special Pre-Open Session on April 30 is the moment Vedanta’s three-year-old demerger story finally meets the market’s price-discovery machinery,” said Harshal Dasani, Business Head at INVasset PMS.
According to analysts, the demerged price for could be around ₹300 apiece. The residual Vedanta Ltd is likely to open in the ₹300–325 band, anchored largely by its 63.4% stake in Hindustan Zinc, copper, ferro chrome and the emerging displays venture, estimates Dasani.
He expects the remaining roughly ₹400–475 of pre-demerger value transfers into the four spun-off entities — Aluminium, Power, Oil & Gas, and Iron & Steel — that shareholders will hold as 1:1 entitlements pending listing over the next four to eight weeks.
Vedanta shares closed at ₹773.60 on the NSE today.
Meanwhile, Sunny Agrawal, Head of Fundamental Research at SBI Securities, expects the fair value for Vedanta shares to be ₹291. For Vedanta Aluminium Metal, it’s ₹489, Vedanta Power ₹44, Vedanta Oil and Gas ₹42 and Vedanta Iron and Steel ₹19, suggesting a higher total fair value of ₹885 for the metals company.
According to Dasani, aluminium is clearly the crown jewel for Vedanta, with a 2.8 MTPA capacity, expanding EBITDA per tonne, and a tight global supply, making it the most likely beneficiary of pure-play re-rating.
“Together with , it should command the bulk of group value once the conglomerate discount unwinds,” he added.
Vedanta shares outlook: What to expect going ahead?
Going ahead, analysts expect some pressure post-listing. This may occur as a few active funds may choose not to continue investing in certain businesses. Investing post-demerger carries slightly higher risk but also offers potentially higher returns from a medium- to long-term perspective, according to Aggarwal.
Meanwhile, Dasani said that two variables will determine whether the SOTP of ₹820–900 actually crystallises for Vedanta — the final allocation of net debt across the five entities, and the speed of regulatory clearances for listing. “For long-term investors, this is a value-unlocking event, not a trading event. Position for the listings, not the open,” he said.
Vedanta shares have surged 29% on a year-to-date (YTD) basis. Meanwhile, in a year, the stock has surged 86%.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.