The rupee has been knocked down badly over the last couple of weeks. The domestic currency fell to a new low of 95.43 against the dollar on Tuesday. It has closed the day at 95.29.
A strong rise in crude oil price over the last two weeks is weighing on the rupee. The Brent Crude oil price has surged about 18 per cent from around $96 per barrel to $113 per barrel now.
More upside
On the charts, the bullish case for oil has strengthened the broader picture remains bullish for crude oil. For now, $105-$116 looks likely to be the trading range for the near term. From a big picture, there is a strong support around $100.
As long as the price stays above $100, Brent Crude Oil has potential for a rise to $125-$130 in the coming weeks. This can continue to keep the rupee under pressure. More room for rise in oil price indicates that the domestic currency can be beaten down more going forward.
Oil price has to go below $100 and sustain lower. Only then it can give some relief for the rupee. That is possible only if the US-Iran war stops. Such a situation seems unlikely at the moment.
As such, we may have to look for much higher oil price and more weakness in rupee.
Rupee outlook
The rupee continues to remain under pressure. Immediate resistance is at 95. Above that 94.80 will be the next resistance. Rupee can fall further to 95.90 or even 96.15 in the coming weeks.
The level of 94.50 will be a crucial resistance. Rupee has to breach this hurdle to get a breather. Only then a recovery to 94 and 93.50 will come into the picture. For such a move to happen either oil price has to decline and sustain below $100, or the central bank should intervene.