Target: ₹2,500
CMP: ₹1,447.80
Sobha reported Q4 pre-sales of ₹2,040 crore, up 11 per cent y-o-y, supported by about 1.3 million sq ft of volume, with Bengaluru contributing 51 per cent, followed by NCR at about 30 per cent and Kerala at about 13 per cent. Q4 momentum was aided by the late-quarter launch of Sobha Rivana (Greater Noida; about 2.5 million sq ft (msf)), which clocked in ₹500 crore of bookings (about 25 per cent of Phase 1) despite a compressed launch window alongside steady sustenance sales across key markets.
Overall, FY26 pre-sales stood at ₹8,100 crore, up 30 per cent y-o-y , driven by 6 msf of launches across nine projects and healthy traction in existing inventory, with Bengaluru at 55 per cent and NCR at 30 per cent, anchoring growth.
The management targets about 30 per cent pre-sales growth, supported by about 10 msf of launches with a GDV of about ₹15,000 crore and ₹12,000-13,000 crore of inventory, implying ₹27,000-28,000 crore of pipeline for FY27. OCF guidance stands at ₹2,000 crore, up about 22 per cent. Q1-FY27 is off to a strong start, led by Sobha Crescent (Gurugram; ₹1,100 crore booked, about 50 per cent sold in the first month), while Hoskote Phase 1 (5.3 msf with a GDV of ₹7,000 crore; about 50 per cent release) is near launch-ready.
The stock price implies a >30 per cent discount to our March 2027E NAV. We raise our pre-sales by up to 23 per cent during FY27-28E while retaining our SOTP-based TP to ₹2,500.