Indian markets are likely to open higher on Thursday amid positive global cues, as crude oil prices slumped.
Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, Julius Baer, said: “The twists and turns continue. The United States called off safeguarding of trade through Hormuz again, keeping uncertainty high, and transits are down to a trickle for the time being. Oil prices dropped below $110 despite the persistent gridlock, possibly for the simple fact that these latest twists triggered some hostilities but not a pronounced escalation. “Politics aside, the oil market has moved past the initial shock reaction and has settled in a regime of deficit absorption by inventory draws. There is breathing room to deal with the supply shock beyond summer. Our views are unchanged; the current crisis should follow the historic pattern of a short-lived but intense price shock. Looking much further ahead, some years from now, the Strait of Hormuz very likely will have lost some of its strategic importance and economic threat, given the lasting shifts that already occurred in response to the conflict,” he said.
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Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said Global sentiment has strengthened amid growing expectations of a potential de-escalation in Middle East tensions. “Indications from Donald Trump that the U.S. has paused its more assertive stance around the Strait of Hormuz, alongside expectations of Iran’s response to a U.S. proposal aimed at resolving the conflict, have supported a recovery in risk appetite. This has translated into a relief rally across global equities, with Indian markets also benefiting from the improved tone.”
Gift Nifty at 24,550 signs a gain of 100 points.
Domestic equities remain constructive
ICICI Prudential Alternates said while India may continue to be impacted by global volatility, it remains constructive on equities given the favourable domestic macro indicators. Going forward, the environment is likely to become more differentiated, making bottom-up stock selection increasingly critical.
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Meanwhile, global stocks, led by the Nikkei, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, are sharply higher.
Derivatives market signals caution
However, derivative trading still signals caution.
From a derivatives standpoint, PCR near 0.61 suggests a cautious-to-bearish undertone, while aggressive call writing at 24,200–24,300 continues to cap upside, and the Put base at 24,000–23,800 reinforces support. Meanwhile, India VIX, which has been sustaining near 18, indicates a controlled volatility environment, supporting range-bound price action rather than trending moves.