Stock markets are likely to open lower on Monday as rising crude oil prices, tensions in West Asia and cautious global sentiment weigh on investor mood. Markets will also react to Prime Minister Narendra for weddings for one year amid pressure from rising global energy prices.
GIFT Nifty futures were trading at 24,069 around 7:42 am IST, indicating that the Nifty 50 could open below Friday’s closing level of 24,176.15.
The weak indication comes after prices jumped sharply following reports that the US and Iran failed to move forward on a peace proposal.
after US President Donald Trump called Iran’s response to Washington’s peace proposal “unacceptable”.
Higher crude oil prices are negative for India because the country imports most of its oil needs.
When oil prices rise sharply:
This is one reason why PM Modi, during his speech on Sunday, urged citizens to reduce fuel usage and avoid unnecessary gold purchases.
“Petrol-diesel has become so expensive across the world. It is the responsibility of all of us that the foreign exchange spent on purchasing petrol-diesel should also be saved by conserving petrol-diesel,” the Prime Minister said.
He also appealed to families to avoid buying gold for weddings for one year, a remark that economists see as linked to concerns over rising import bills and pressure on foreign exchange reserves.
Gold and crude oil are both heavily imported into India and paid for in US dollars. Higher imports increase dollar outflows from the country and can weaken the rupee further during periods of global uncertainty.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remained net sellers on Friday, selling Indian shares worth Rs 4,110.60 crore.
Domestic institutional investors (DIIs), however, continued their buying streak for the eleventh straight session with inflows of Rs 6,748.13 crore.
Analysts say DII support has helped limit deeper market falls despite continuous foreign selling.
Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking Private Limited, said markets are expected to begin the week on a cautious note due to geopolitical uncertainty and mixed global signals.
“Indian equity markets are expected to open on a cautious negative note, with Gift Nifty trading at 24,050, down by 188 points,” he said.
According to Shah, the Nifty 50 extended its decline during the previous session and failed to sustain above key technical levels including the 50% Fibonacci retracement zone and the 50-day EMA.
However, the index continues to trade above the 20-day EMA, which has acted as an important support level in recent weeks.
He said technical indicators are showing signs of weakening momentum.
“The RSI stood at 52.40 and witnessed a bearish crossover while remaining largely sideways, indicating fading momentum,” Shah said.
He added that the MACD indicator remains positive but bullish momentum is weakening as green histogram bars continue to narrow.
According to Shah, the Nifty is expected to remain within a broad 23,800–24,500 range in the near term.
A breakout above 24,500 may push the index toward 24,600–24,800 levels.
On the downside:
Derivatives data also points to a cautious market setup.
The Nifty Put-Call Ratio (PCR) fell to 0.93 from 1.08 in the previous session, indicating more cautious positioning by traders.
India VIX, which measures market volatility, rose 1.32% to 16.84 after falling for four straight sessions.
Option chain data suggests:
Bank Nifty underperformed the benchmark indices in the previous session and fell more than 1.3%.
Shah said the banking index slipped below short- and medium-term moving averages, indicating weakness in the sector.
Immediate support for Bank Nifty is seen between 53,800 and 53,500, while resistance remains in the 54,500–55,000 zone.
Analysts say banking stocks may remain under pressure unless the index manages to move decisively above resistance levels.
Markets are likely to remain volatile through the session as investors track:
Election-related developments in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal may also influence sentiment during the day, though analysts believe global cues and oil prices will remain the bigger drivers for markets at present.
Overall, the market setup suggests a cautious start to the week with investors remaining watchful about global risks, rising oil prices and pressure on the Indian rupee.
(Disclaimer: The views, opinions, recommendations, and suggestions expressed by experts/brokerages in this article are their own and do not reflect the views of the India Today Group. It is advisable to consult a qualified broker or financial advisor before making any actual investment or trading choices.)