futures traded higher on Monday morning following reports of drone attacks on the UAE and Saudi Arabia, even as US President Donald Trump warned of more actions against Iran.
At 10.03 am on Monday, July Brent oil futures were at $111.21, up by 1.78 per cent, and July crude oil futures on WTI (West Texas Intermediate) were at $103.20, up by 2.16 per cent. May crude oil futures were trading at ₹10379 on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) during the initial hour of trading on Monday against the previous close of ₹10080, up by 2.97 per cent, and June futures were trading at ₹9970 against the previous close of ₹9685, up by 2.94 per cent.
Reports said that a drone attack led to a fire at a nuclear plant in the UAE, while Saudi Arabia also reported interpreting three drones.
In a post on the social media platform Truth Social, Trump said: “For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!”
In their Commodities Feed for Monday, Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy of ING Think, and Ewa Manthey, Commodities Strategist, said the oil market continues to reprice ongoing supply disruptions, with last week’s Trump-Xi talks yielding no tangible progress in West Asia. There had been hope that China could use its influence over Tehran to break the deadlock between the US and Iran.
“If anything, re-escalation risks are increasing, with a drone strike on the UAE’s only nuclear power plant over the weekend,” they said. Trump warned Iran that the ‘clock is ticking’ and that ‘they better get moving, fast, or there won’t be anything left of them.’ It’s no surprise that Brent is trading stronger on Monday morning after the aggressive rhetoric, moving convincingly above $110 a barrel, they said.
On the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, they said there have been more vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz over the last week. There were reports that Iran allowed 30 vessels to navigate the strait over a two-day period last week. Also, several crude tankers have managed to get through. A Vietnamese-bound tanker carrying Iraqi crude, previously blocked by the US, received clearance to continue its journey. So while the standoff between the US and Iran continues, there are signs of a pick-up in shipping activity. However, this can change quickly, they said.
Meanwhile, Iraq’s oil ministry said that despite the disruptions in flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the country still managed to export 10 million barrels of oil in April. This amounts to a little over 300,000 barrels a day. “It shows that we are still seeing oil getting through, though at far-below-normal levels. Prior to the war, Iraq was exporting roughly 93 million barrels a month through the Strait of Hormuz,” they said.
The ongoing supply disruptions mean the market has had to rely largely on inventory and alternative supply, where possible. This has included Russian oil, following the US’ issuance of a waiver for Russian oil sales. It allowed a large amount of Russian oil floating at sea to be sold. This floating storage has grown since last year due to US sanctions. However, this waiver expired over the weekend, and the US has not extended it so far, despite the significant tightness in the oil market, they said.
May natural gas futures were trading at ₹292.50 on MCX during the initial hour of trading on Monday against the previous close of ₹284, up by 2.99 per cent.
On the National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), May dhaniya contracts were trading at ₹12890 in the initial hour of trading on Monday against the previous close of ₹12808, up by 0.64 per cent.
May jeera futures were trading at ₹19215 on NCDEX in the initial hour of trading on Monday against the previous close of ₹19465, down by 1.28 per cent.