Shares of rallied 6% in intraday deals on Tuesday, 19 May, to hit a fresh 52-week high of ₹13.68 on the BSE as brokerages turned cautiously optimistic on the telco following its March quarter results.
With today’s rise, Vodafone Idea shares have doubled investors’ wealth in just one year, rising as much as 101%, even as the Indian stock market remained on weak ground. At the same time, the BSE barometer , grappling with headwinds like the Middle East war, and weakness in the rupee, has lost 7.95% of its value during this period.
In the month of May alone, Vodafone Idea stock has surged 33%, building on the 19% rise seen last month. So far in 2026, the counter has jumped 26.9% as investors cheer multiple positive developments for the telecom major, which is now shifting gears from focusing on survival to pursuing a sustained revival.
Vodafone Idea debt fundraising in focus
The fresh optimism stems from the return of as chairman and the ensuing capital infusion announced during the March quarter earnings on Saturday, 16 May.
This has increased investor confidence in Vodafone Idea’s debt fundraising. Aditya Birla group has decided to infuse ₹4700 crore via warrants, signalling promoter confidence in the counter, which, according to Citi, should “catalyse closure of the long-pending bank funding, which is critical for Vodafone Idea’s capex rollout.”
Securing bank debt remains critical for Vodafone Idea to scale up execution of its planned ₹45,000 crore 3-year capex programme announced during its January strategic review, which will be focused on accelerating network investments, improving 4G coverage, and supporting 5G rollout.
Over the next three years, Vodafone Idea has obligations of ~ ₹100,000 crore, including capex of ₹45,000 crore, debt servicing of ₹15,000 crore and spectrum pay-outs of ₹35,000 crore. Management expects to fund this through cumulative cash generation of ₹60,000 crore, bank debt raise of ₹25,000 crore, LC facilities amounting to ₹10,000 crore, closing cash of ₹3,500 crore and promoter capital infusion.
Analysts at Ambit Capital expect the fundraising to be finalised by June 2026. “Sustained capex momentum should enable VI to upgrade its featurephone users (1/3rd of overall) to smartphones, enabling industry-tandem revenue growth,” they added.
AGR relief a major sentiment driver
The biggest overhang that has dissipated for Vodafone Idea is the reassessment of AGR dues from ₹87,700 crore to ₹64,000 crore and the staggered repayment schedule, including an effective 6-year moratorium, providing a lifeline to the telecom firm.
AGR relief and promoter infusion materially improve funding visibility, while stabilising subscriber trends indicate early signs of operational recovery, said Citi. It added that the closure of bank financing now remains the key near-term catalyst for the stock.
Vodafone Q4 show ahead of estimates
Vodafone Idea’s revenue was higher by 3% at ₹11,300 crore, and cash EBITDA increased by 5% YoY to ₹24,300 crore, beating Citi’s estimates by 1% and 2%, respectively, driven by slightly better than expected ARPU at ₹174 and narrowing of subscriber losses to nearly nil during the quarter ended March 2026.
Beleaguered telecom operator Vodafone Idea also posted a surprise consolidated net profit of ₹51,970 crore, the first in about six years, mainly due to relief in statutory liabilities. Its net loss came in at ₹7,167 crore in the same period a year ago.
Given moderation in churn and subscriber stabilisation that led to 14% cash EBITDA beat in 4QFY26, Ambit Capital increased its FY27/FY28/FY29 cash EBITDA estimates by 9-24%. It has a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a target price of ₹17.6, among the highest in the industry.
Meanwhile, Nuvama Research acknowledged that the KPIs like subscriber addition, and churn rates are improving, but added that a lot more needs to fall into place for Vodafone Idea stock to become an investible idea. “We tweak our FY27E/28E EBITDA by -8.1%/-6.1% as we push forward the tariff hike to Q2FY27E and tweak the funding assumption. We now value VIL at 12x FY28E EV/EBITDA (earlier 11x),” it said as it retained the ‘Hold’ rating on Vodafone Idea stock with a target price of ₹13.5 from ₹10.5 earlier.
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