Cigarette-to-soap maker is expected to report a muted performance for the fourth quarter of the last fiscal year, with overall revenue likely to grow in the low single digits, while the cigarette business revenue remains under pressure from higher taxes.
While the ongoing West Asia crisis could weigh on the Kolkata-headquartered conglomerate’s agri business, its non-cigarette FMCG business may witness double-digit growth in Q4FY26, according to brokerages.
Cigarette segment faces tax-led pressure
According to Nuvama, ITC’s cigarette net revenue and EBIT are likely to decline around 3 per cent and 7 per cent, respectively, during the January-March quarter.
Notably, from February 1, cigarettes, tobacco, and similar products are subject to a GST rate of 40 per cent. According to analysts, the new cigarette tax increase was quite large. Following the steep tax hike, significantly above historical levels, ITC’s cigarettes segment may witness flattish volumes in Q4FY26.
FMCG shows strong double-digit growth
While Nuvama expects non-cigarette revenue to grow around 10 per cent, driven by improving margins and favourable base effects, Citi expects the business to grow around 11 per cent during the quarter.
Agri business under external pressure
Analysts expected that ITC’s would remain under pressure due to lower exports amid the ongoing conflict in West Asia, which has been affecting trade flows in overseas markets.
According to Nuvama, agribusiness revenue is expected to decline by around 10 per cent year-on-year. It, however, observed that segment profits may still rise sharply due to a margin recovery.