ITC Q4 results today: ITC Limited is expected to report a subdued performance for the , with cigarette sales and margins likely to remain under pressure following the sharp tax increase announced by the government in February 2026.
The company is scheduled to announce its Q4FY26 results today, 21 May, 2026. In an exchange filing, said its Board of Directors would meet on Thursday to consider and approve the audited standalone and consolidated financial results for FY26. The board will also consider a proposal for a final for FY2026.
The stock rose 0.9% to its day’s high of ₹310.30 on BSE ahead of its earnings. It has shed 5% in the past 3 months, 24% in last 6 months and 28% in the past 1 year.
Here’s what brokerages expect?
While the company’s fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) business is expected to maintain healthy growth momentum, weakness in the cigarette and agri segments may keep overall revenue growth largely flat during the quarter. Analysts believe the recent tax hike disrupted demand trends, led to temporary pricing pressures and affected volume growth in ITC’s core cigarette business.
Analysts expect ITC to continue implementing calibrated cigarette price hikes over the coming months to fully offset the higher tax burden while protecting market share from illicit trade and downtrading.
“While ITC has taken sharp price hikes across key brands, the company is yet to achieve full pass-through of the recent tax increase, which may continue to impact volumes and profitability in the near term,” Nuvama Institutional Equities said.
According to Nuvama Institutional Equities, cigarette net revenue and EBIT are likely to decline around 3% and 7%, respectively, during the March quarter. The brokerage expects cigarette volumes to remain flat compared to 7% growth in the December quarter and 5% growth in the year-ago period.
Despite weakness in cigarettes, Nuvama expects ITC’s non-cigarette FMCG business to post nearly 10% revenue growth, aided by improving margins and favourable base effects. The brokerage also estimated that agribusiness revenue may decline around 10% year-on-year, although profits from the segment could still improve sharply due to margin recovery. The paper, paperboards and packaging business is likely to witness modest growth amid continued import pressure.
At the consolidated level, Nuvama expects EBITDA to decline around 3.5% year-on-year, while EBITDA margin may contract nearly 76 basis points to around 34%.
Meanwhile, Elara Securities expects ITC’s revenue to remain broadly flat year-on-year, declining 0.4% to ₹17,951.3 crore, while rising 4.1% sequentially. The brokerage estimated EBITDA for the quarter at ₹6,395 crore, up 2% year-on-year and 6.8% quarter-on-quarter.
Elara Securities further projected adjusted net profit at ₹5,220 million, reflecting growth of 7.1% year-on-year and 2.6% sequentially.
Axis Securities, on the other hand, expects ITC to report overall revenue growth of 5.2% year-on-year at ₹17,897 crore. The brokerage estimated EBITDA to rise 2.9% year-on-year to ₹6,163 crore, while EBITDA margin may contract 74 basis points to 34.4%. Profit after tax is expected to remain largely flat at ₹4,897 crore.
“The steep tax hike in cigarettes, which was significantly above historical levels, may result in flattish volume growth and encourage ITC to adopt calibrated pricing rather than aggressive pass-through to protect the legal cigarette franchise,” Axis Securities said.
Axis Securities expects ITC’s FMCG business to grow around 10% year-on-year, while the agri business could post nearly 12% growth. The paper business is estimated to expand around 4% annually.
Brokerages said management commentary on rural and urban demand trends, competitive intensity, raw material inflation and the outlook for the agri business would remain key monitorables for investors during the earnings call.
Q3 performance and dividend details
In the , ITC reported a standalone net profit of ₹5,088.83 crore, down 6.1% year-on-year from ₹5,421.36 crore. The decline in profitability was largely attributed to a one-time labour code-related cost of ₹273.83 crore.
Revenue from operations during Q3FY26 rose 5.8% year-on-year to ₹19,359.46 crore compared with ₹18,290.24 crore in the corresponding quarter last year. EBITDA increased 7.6% to ₹6,271 crore from ₹5,828 crore in the year-ago period.
“Investors are likely to closely track management commentary around rural demand recovery, pricing actions in cigarettes, raw material cost trends and the sustainability of margins across FMCG and agri businesses going forward,” analysts said.
Alongside the Q3 results, ITC had announced an interim dividend of ₹6.5 per share for shareholders. The company fixed February 4, 2026, as the record date for the dividend, while payments to eligible shareholders were scheduled between February 26 and February 28, 2026.
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