Hopes for a deal between the US and Iran that will turn a fragile ceasefire into lasting peace fueled Wall Street optimism, driving stocks toward their longest streak of weekly gains since 2023.
Following an 18 per cent surge from war-fuelled lows, the S&P 500 was set for an eighth straight week of gains. Two-year yields hit the highest since February 2025 as Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller supports making clear the next rate move is just as likely to be a raise as a cut. Money markets fully priced in a hike this year. In a volatile session, US oil settled above $96.
Nearly three months into the conflict, Iran is considering the latest proposal submitted by the US. Pakistan’s army chief, the favored interlocutor between Washington and Tehran, arrived in the Iranian capital. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there’s been “slight progress” in negotiations.
Iran isn’t close to a deal with the US, and the Pakistan army chief’s meeting isn’t meant to show that is near, the Islamic Republic News Agency reported, citing Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmail Baghaei. The focus is on ending the war, he said.
So the fact that equities are gaining ahead of a three-day weekend in the US tells us quite a bit about traders’ attitudes toward risk, according to Steve Sosnick at Interactive Brokers.
“In a more risk-averse environment, we might expect traders to pare risk and square positions,” he said. “Instead, they are quite willing to add to long positions, implying that they are unwilling to risk missing a peace-dividend rally.”
The US and Iran have been locked in a stalemate since agreeing to a ceasefire in April, with traders closely parsing the economic fallout of the conflict. US consumer sentiment fell in May to a record low and long-term inflation expectations worsened notably due to the war.
Fed’s Waller said his current position is to be patient in holding rates until the war’s impact is clearer, while warning he wouldn’t rule out a future rate hike if inflation doesn’t start to slow soon.
“Waller’s latest remarks confirm the hawkish shift at the Fed,” said Krishna Guha at Evercore. “At the same time though, his policy posture was not as hawkish as his tone, with Waller saying he is prepared to wait and see for now.”
President Donald Trump stressed that he wants Kevin Warsh to independently lead the Fed, as he looked to downplay investor concern that he would pressure the new central bank chief on policy decisions. Warsh was sworn into office Friday.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
- The S&P 500 rose 0.6% as of 3 p.m. New York time
- The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.8%
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%
- The MSCI World Index rose 0.7%
Currencies
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
- The euro was little changed at $1.1612
- The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.3448
- The Japanese yen was little changed at 159.13 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
- Bitcoin fell 1.6% to $76,431.09
- Ether fell 1.8% to $2,097.25
Bonds
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 4.56%
- Germany’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 3.04%
- Britain’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 4.90%
- The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.12%
Commodities
- West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.2% to $96.16 a barrel
- Spot gold fell 0.6% to $4,514.20 an ounce
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