The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to see a sharply lower opening on Monday, tracking weakness in global markets, as renewed Middle East conflict eroded hopes of an end to the wider US-Iran war.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a gap-down start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 23,118 level, a discount of nearly 334 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
On Friday, the ended lower after the (RBI) monetary policy, with the benchmark Nifty 50 slipping below 23,400 level.
The Sensex fell 116.67 points, or 0.16%, to close at 74,243.34, while the Nifty 50 settled 49.85 points, or 0.21%, lower at 23,366.70.
Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
Sensex declined 0.71% last week, forming a bearish candle on weekly charts, and is still trading below short-term averages, which is largely negative.
“We are of the view that 73,500 will act as a crucial support zone for traders. As long as Sensex trades above this level, a pullback formation is likely to continue. On the higher side, the index could bounce back to the 20 and 50-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) around 75,000. Further upside potential may also push toward 75,500 – 75,800,” said Amol Athawale, VP Technical Research, Kotak Securities.
On the flip side, he believes a decline below 73,500 could accelerate selling pressure, and if this support is broken, Sensex could slip to 73,000 – 72,800.
Nifty Options Data
From a derivatives perspective, significant put writing at 23,300 and 23,000 continues to strengthen the support base, while heavy call writers’ presence at 23,500 and 23,700 is restricting any meaningful upside. The PCR stands at 0.69.
“The setup reflects a cautious undertone and indicates that traders remain reluctant to build aggressive long positions despite the index holding key support levels. Meanwhile, India VIX remained subdued near 15.8, signalling stable volatility expectations and supporting the ongoing consolidation phase,” said Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 ended the week 0.77% lower, extending its losing streak for the second consecutive week, forming a bearish candle on both the daily and weekly charts.
“A small negative candle was formed on the daily chart with minor lower shadow. Though, Nifty 50 placed above the supports, it has failed to gain momentum on the upside for the breakout. The status-quo announcement by RBI in its bi-monthly policy meet has failed to lift the positive sentiment in the market,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
According to him, the underlying trend of remains choppy with positive bias.
“A decisive breakout of 23,500 could open further upside towards the next hurdle of 23,800 – 23,900 levels by next week. Immediate support is placed at 23,200 levels,” said Shetti.
Dr. Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer from Master Capital Services Ltd. noted that the Nifty 50 index is trading below its ascending trendline and remains under the 21-day, 55-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs, highlighting a weak technical structure.
“Market sentiment remains cautious, with every rebound attracting fresh selling pressure. Immediate support is placed at 23,100, and a sustained move below this level could open the door for a decline towards 22,800. On the upside, 23,700 remains a key hurdle. As long as Nifty 50 stays below this resistance, traders may prefer a sell-on-rise approach,” said Singh.
Mayank Jain, Market Analyst, Share.Market by PhonePe said that the support for Nifty 50 lies at the 23,000 – 23,100 zone, while resistance is placed at 23,700 – 23,800 levels.
“The intraday low of 23,282.65 acted as a temporary cushion today, but the critical line of defense remains between 23,000 and 23,100. A decisive daily close below 23,000 will signal an extension of the correction, opening the floodgates for a drop toward the 22,750 level. On any technical bounce, the index faces heavy overhead resistance,” said Jain.
He believes buyers must push the Nifty 50 index above the 23,700 – 23,800 supply zone to completely reverse this cautious momentum and unlock further upside.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty index ended 188.40 points, or 0.35%, higher at 54,496.25 on Friday, forming a green candle on the daily chart. For the week, the index gained 0.47% and formed a Dragonfly Doji on the weekly chart, suggesting buying support at lower levels.
“From a relative strength perspective, the ratio chart of Bank Nifty versus Nifty has witnessed a consolidation breakout and has started trending higher, indicating sustained outperformance. Currently, the index is trading above its 20-day EMA, suggesting a relatively resilient bias. However, momentum indicators are still hovering sideways, reflecting a lack of strong directional conviction in the near term,” said Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical Research and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.
Going forward, he believes the 50-day EMA zone of 55,000 – 55,100 is expected to act as an immediate resistance area, and a sustained move above 55,100 could pave the way for a sharp upside rally towards 55,800, followed by 56,500 in the short term.
“On the downside, the 53,800 – 53,700 zone will serve as a crucial support area for Bank Nifty, providing a cushion against any near-term weakness,” said Shah.
Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities highlighted that the RSI on the daily chart has crossed above the 50 mark, indicating a mild improvement in momentum, while the MACD remains in positive territory, reflecting an improving short-term trend.
“The immediate resistance for Bank Nifty is placed in the 55,000 – 55,200 zone, and a sustained close above this range could pave the way for a recovery towards 55,500. On the downside, 54,100, followed by 53,900, will act as key support levels to watch. The technical setup for Nifty Bank is gradually improving, although a decisive directional move is yet to emerge,” said Mehra.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.