Shadow markets are pricing a blockbuster SpaceX stock debut, indicating a pop of at least 35% for Elon Musk’s rocket, satellite and AI company.
Derivatives offered by online brokerage IG International pointed to a market value of $2.4 trillion Friday morning in Singapore, implying a gain of more than 35% from a price of $135 a share and valuation of $1.77 trillion in the initial public offering.
SpaceX-tied perpetual futures, contracts that don’t expire, on crypto venue Hyperliquid were trading around $180, implying a valuation of more than $2.3 trillion. Over $143 million of the instrument traded in the past 24 hours, and it currently has more than $208 million in open interest.
Prediction markets have also added to the bullish signals. Polymarket traders put 70% odds on SpaceX closing above $2 trillion of market value on its first day of trading.
While these signals indicate a level of enthusiasm, they won’t necessarily translate directly into a stock price move. Shadow markets are usually thinner and less transparent than public markets, so prices can swing sharply and may be driven by a small group of traders, leverage or short-term speculation rather than broad investor demand.
Still, the pricing underscores how ravenous investor appetite has become for assets at the intersection of AI and space infrastructure. A SpaceX debut that delivers a first-day surge would likely bode well for the IPOs of OpenAI and Anthropic PBC, handing bankers evidence that public markets can absorb trillion-dollar valuations that were unthinkable just a few years ago.
“Demand has been good for the IPO and there is a lot of interest in the pre-IPO trading as well,” said Fabien Yip, a market analyst at IG. It was the most popular pre-IPO trade “we have had so far even with the valuation looking stretched. If the pre-IPO pricing momentum sustains, it will set a precedent for the next mega-IPOs,” she added.
In the short term though, a strong SpaceX debut could also pull money away from the so-called Magnificent Seven cohort of stocks and even Tesla Inc., while lifting suppliers, peers and shareholders tied to Musk’s rocket and satellite company across the world.
Read: Locked Out of IPO, Asia Investors Find Ways to Bet on SpaceX
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