Forecasters have confirmed the arrival of El Nino, the warming of the equatorial Pacific that is known to disrupt weather patterns worldwide. For India, the development raises the risk of a weak monsoon at a time when food inflation has started to accelerate. This year’s El Nino is expected to be among the strongest in decades and could persist into early 2027. Mint explains what is at stake.
What is the latest forecast?
On 11 June, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the US announced the emergence of El Nino in the equatorial Pacific. The event is forecast to strengthen through the year, peaking around November-December and persisting until February-March 2027.
NOAA has assigned a 63% probability of sea surface temperatures exceeding 2 degrees Celsius above normal, placing this El Nino in the “very strong” category. Since 1951, there have been only six such events.
A day after the NOAA forecast, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) also confirmed the emergence of El Nino and said it is expected to gain strength as the June-September southwest monsoon progresses.
How does this impact India?
El Nino typically suppresses the Indian monsoon by weakening trade winds over the Pacific. As a result, moisture-laden monsoon winds moving towards India lose momentum.
Since 1951, 12 of the 17 El Nino years have coincided with below-normal or deficient rainfall. Rainfall is considered below normal when it is 90-95% of the long-period average (LPA), and deficient when it falls by more than 10% below that benchmark.
IMD has forecast monsoon rainfall at 90% of the LPA this year, which would make it the weakest monsoon since 2015. After arriving three days late on Kerala coast on 4 June, the monsoon recorded a rainfall deficit of 28.4% as of 14 June. If the deficit persists over the next month, planting of kharif crops could come under pressure.
What is the overall prognosis?
The IMD’s second and final monsoon forecast, issued at the end of May, projected rainfall at 90% of the LPA.
The eventual outcome will depend not only on the overall quantum of rainfall but also on its distribution. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), characterized by warmer waters in the western Indian Ocean relative to the eastern Indian Ocean, can offset some of El Nino’s adverse effects on the monsoon.
But in its latest update on 12 June, the IMD said neutral IOD conditions are expected to persist through the monsoon season, limiting that potential support.
Does this mean a hit to food production?
Again, much will depend on the distribution of monsoon rainfall.
India has ample public stocks of rice and could absorb a shortfall in the main kharif crop. But rain-fed pulses and oilseeds, where the country remains heavily dependent on imports, are more vulnerable to deficient rainfall in key growing regions.
Prolonged dry spells and a hotter-than-usual monsoon can also increase the risk of pest infestations and disease outbreaks. Short-duration vegetable crops are particularly vulnerable. Dairy production could also be affected if fodder availability declines and temperatures remain elevated.
Retail food inflation, meanwhile, accelerated from 2.1% in January to 4.8% in May. Essential kitchen staples such as tomatoes cost 48% more than a year earlier, while cooking oil prices rose 9.5%.
Persistent heatwaves have pushed up prices of vegetables, dairy products and eggs, ratings agency Crisil said in a note on 12 June. Any significant shortfall in rainfall in the coming months could add to those pressures.
Which other sectors could be hit?
India receives around three-quarters of its annual rainfall during the four-month monsoon season. The consequences of a weak monsoon therefore extend beyond agriculture.
Monsoon rains recharge groundwater, replenish reservoirs and support water supplies for households and industry. They are also critical for hydropower generation.
With El Nino expected to strengthen through winter and extend into 2027, the risk of elevated temperatures next year will remain in focus. Parts of India could face drinking water shortages, similar to those experienced during the summer of 2016 following the onset of the strong 2015-16 El Nino.