Precious metals slipped over the last week. Gold ($4,155/ounce) and silver ($64.9/ounce) depreciated 1.5 and 4.6 per cent respectively. Similarly, in the domestic market, gold futures (₹1,47,203/10 gm) lost 2.2 per cent and silver futures (₹2,33,185/kg) was down 5.3 per cent. The charts show that there is scope for further decline in prices. Below is an analysis.
MCX-Gold (₹1,47,203)
Gold futures (Aug) opened last week with a gap-up at ₹1,53,829 versus previous week’s close of ₹1,50,528. But there was no follow through rally, and the contract was mostly consolidating in the first half of last week.
However, in the last two sessions, the contract faced strong downward pressure and breached a support at ₹1,49,000. The price action is bearish, and the likelihood of further decline is high. We expect gold futures to touch ₹1,41,000 in the near-term.
If there is a recovery, the contract will face resistance at ₹1,50,000. That said, only a clear breakout of ₹1,55,000 can turn the outlook positive.
Trade strategy: Last week, we suggested shorting gold futures if it slips below ₹1,49,000. Retain this position with the stop-loss at ₹1,51,000. Book profits at ₹1,44,000.
Traders with higher risk tolerance can move the target from ₹1,44,000 to ₹1,41,000 as the current price action hints at a deeper fall.
MCX-Silver (₹2,33,185)
Silver futures (Jul), similar to gold futures, began last Monday’s session with a gap-up open. But what followed was a sideways crawl before seeing a decline on Thursday and Friday.
The contract broke below a support at ₹2,40,000, made a low of ₹2,28,162 before wrapping up the week at ₹2,33,185 on Friday. Thus, the support at ₹2,30,000 stays valid.
However, we anticipate another leg of a decline from the current level, which can potentially drag the contract to ₹2,20,000 in the near-term.
In order to change the trend bullish, silver futures ought to surpass the barrier at ₹2,55,000.
Trade strategy: We suggested going short on silver futures if the price declines below ₹2,35,000. Traders can hold on to this position and maintain the stop-loss at ₹2,42,000. Book profits at ₹2,20,000.