New Delhi is mobilizing emergency agricultural defences for hundreds of districts, as a weak monsoon threatens to disrupt food production and strain the rural economy.
The government has activated contingency plans across 315 vulnerable districts to prevent fields from lying fallow, guiding farmers towards alternative, low-water crops like pulses and millets, agriculture minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said on Tuesday. The government is also fast-tracking local water-harvesting initiatives such as check dams and farm ponds, while deploying a dedicated monitoring cell to track real-time weather, even as monsoon rains remain about 43% below normal.
“We do not want farmers to leave their land fallow. Alternative crop strategies have been prepared so that cultivation can continue even if rainfall remains below normal,” Chouhan said.
Kharif crops accounted for about 51% of India’s total foodgrain production in 2024-25, with rice, pulses and coarse cereals forming a significant part of the country’s food basket, according to the agriculture ministry’s Fourth Advance Estimates for 2024-25. Low monsoon rainfall is significant, as the season accounts for about 70% of India’s annual rainfall. The rural economy, which relies heavily on agriculture, remains an important driver of economic growth.
Priority districts
The government has identified 111 districts as high-priority, where less than 25% of the cultivated area is irrigated, making them particularly vulnerable to rainfall deficits, Chouhan said. Another 76 districts with 25-50% irrigation coverage have been categorized as medium-priority, while 128 districts are placed in the low-priority category due to relatively better irrigation infrastructure, including dams and canals. For the high-priority districts, the Centre has directed central agricultural institutions to engage directly with farmers and advise them on suitable alternative crops and sowing strategies.
The Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) and its drought-management arm have prepared District Agriculture Contingency Plans (DACPs) for vulnerable districts, the minister said, including crop diversification, alternative sowing strategies, water conservation measures and efficient use of available irrigation resources. States have been advised to keep the plans operational and ready for immediate implementation if rainfall conditions deteriorate further.
The Centre has also directed states to maximize the use of ponds, reservoirs, farm ponds, check dams and other water-harvesting structures to conserve available water. Water conservation works under rural development programmes are also being prioritized to improve local storage capacity and support irrigation needs. Farmers are also being encouraged to adopt short-duration and low-water-consuming crop varieties and diversify into pulses, oilseeds and millets that can better withstand moisture stress.
The 12 states expected to face the greatest risk from deficient rainfall include Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Telangana, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh and Jharkhand.
Drought history
India has experienced El Niño-linked droughts before. The 2002 drought caused foodgrain production to fall by about 18% and agricultural GDP to contract by nearly 7%, while the 2015 El Niño also led to deficient monsoon rainfall and lower crop output. However, improved irrigation and contingency planning helped limit the impact of the 2023 El Niño on foodgrain production.
Meanwhile, the southwest monsoon reached Mumbai on 23 June. According to the weather department, it is expected to enter Gujarat, the remaining parts of Maharashtra, and northern parts of Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand over the next two days, and further into parts of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh over the following three to four days.
The contingency plans were activated after Chouhan held a review meeting with state agriculture ministers, district collectors from potentially affected regions, and officials from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), ICAR and the agriculture ministry.
The government has also maintained additional seed stocks for possible re-sowing requirements and is closely monitoring fertilizer availability in vulnerable districts to ensure timely supply once weather conditions improve. Contingency arrangements are also being prepared to address potential fodder shortages if deficient rainfall affects livestock feed availability.
El Niño cell
To strengthen monitoring, the agriculture ministry has activated an El Niño monitoring cell and a crop weather watch group to track rainfall patterns, sowing progress, crop conditions and input availability in real time. States have also been asked to strengthen implementation of schemes such as the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY) and Kisan Credit Cards (KCC) to improve farmers’ resilience against weather-related shocks.
“The early preparation of district-level contingency plans is a timely risk-management measure. While it is too early to assess the eventual impact on production, having alternative crop strategies and water-management plans in place can help reduce disruptions if rainfall remains below normal,” Rakesh Arrawatia, Professor at the Institute of Rural Management Anand (IRMA) and Dean, School of Cooperative Banking and Finance.
According to ICAR-Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture (CRIDA), India has relied on district-level contingency plans, alternative crop strategies and water-management measures during previous drought and deficient-monsoon years.
However, weather experts argued that India’s foodgrain yields can withstand the approximately 10% rainfall deficit estimated by the IMD due to the El Nino. “A 10% deficit should not alarm us as better cropping patterns have emerged and farmers are more aware. Crucially, agriculture has become more dependent on Rabi harvest than kharif harvest. Nature has its own standard deviation, that is why the monsoon onset can be delayed. But it is important to understand that it always shows up,” said Ranjan Kelkar, former director general of the IMD.