Target: ₹3,941
CMP: ₹3,558.65
A report by IMARC group reckons that Indian PVC pipes market is undergoing a structural transformation, driven by mission-mode water infrastructure programmes, agricultural modernisation and the rapid pace of residential construction. At this pace of transformation, the report says that PVC volumes would grow at a CAGR of 6.59 per cent between 2025 and 2034.
Technological advancements are noteworthy too: Indian manufacturers are transitioning from lead-based stabilisers to calcium-zinc and organic-tin systems, in line with global reach and EU norms. Sensor-embedded pipe systems for water utilities are at an early adoption stage.
Undeterred by growing geo-political risks and slowdown in rural spending, Supreme is going full hog in piling up capacities by spending about ₹1,000 crore this fiscal.
Stable off-take of value-added products — 14.6 per cent growth in volumes of plastic piping value-added products in FY26 — coupled with inventory gains in Q4FY26 helped push margins. Yet, much of the mid-teens volume growth estimated for the next two years rests on stability in raw material prices and the government’s spending in social schemes.
Though flagship business has some edge in distribution and brand equity, volatility in raw material prices and little product differentiation have noticeable side effects. Weighing odds, we assign “accumulate” rating on the stock with revised target of ₹3,941 (previous target: ₹3,672) based on 40x FY28e earnings over a period of six-nine months.