The Indian government’s assessment of districts vulnerable to a possible El Niño impact this year is based on a historical analysis by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) of crop losses during previous El Niño years. ICAR has identified districts that had recorded at least a 10 per cent decline in production during the drought-bearing El Niño years of 2002, 2004 and 2009, creating a district-level vulnerability map for key rain-fed crops.
The exercise flagged 77 districts in paddy, 65 in maize and 36 each in sorghum and millet as particularly susceptible to rainfall shocks associated with El Niño conditions.
The identification of these districts forms the basis of the Centre’s preparedness strategy for the current monsoon season. States have been advised to implement crop-specific contingency measures and agronomic interventions to minimise yield losses in the event of a significant rainfall deficiency. The move suggests that the government’s response is being guided not only by current weather forecasts but also by lessons drawn from the agricultural impact of previous El Niño episodes, particularly in major foodgrain-producing regions.
‘2026 not comparable’
Official sources said that these thee years are crucial to under stand impact of monsoon as the rainfall deficit was 19 per cent in 2002, 13 per cent in 2004 and 23 per cent in 2009. In other El Nino years since 2002, the impact on monsoon was not much due to other factors. The kharif season’ foodgrains (rice, nutri/course cereals and pulses) production in 2002 had dropped by over 22 per cent, and in 2004 and 2009 by 12 per cent, each.
However, a former agriculture secretary said that the current year’s situation is not comparable with these previous three years as there has been a major expansion of area under assured irrigation, mainly through groundwater. Besides, the spatial distribution of rainfall needs to be monitored how it spreads out this year, which may not be same as was on earlier occasions, he said citing the instance of Odisha where monsoon is predicted to be normal in most districts this year.
According to the ICAR’s standar operating procedures (SPO) for 2026, “terminal drought generally coincides with reproductive stages and often led to severe yield reductions. In such situations, Krishi Vigyan Kendras (KVKs) will recommend applying life-saving irrigation, wherever possible, along with foliar nutrient applications, and prioritization of catch crops in case of crop failures. Severely affected crops can be harvested as fodder.”
Sensitising stakeholders
Sources said that ICAR’s Hyderbad-based Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture (CRIDA) has started holding meetings with agriculture departments of States to sensitise stakeholders on the potential impacts of El Niño and appropriate adaptation strategies, including contingency crop planning for managing mid-season and terminal droughts. So far, it has held first round of meetings with major rice growers Bihar, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Assam, Punjab, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal.
The Centre has fixed a production target of 176.16 million tonnes (mt) of foodgrains which include 123.15 mt of rice, 31.04 mt of maize, 13.56 mt of nutri cereals and 8.4 mt of pulses in current Kharif season.
Meanwhile India Meteorological Department on Wednesday said that monsoon rainfall across the country during June 1-24 was 42 per cent lower than normal with only 21 per cent of the geographical areas receiving average rainfall.